Morning Notes – Friday November 3, 2017

/ November 3, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Drifting mostly sideways since 4:00 PM on November 2
  • Odds are for a sideways day – watch for break above 2581.25 and below 2576.00  for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Average Hourly Earnings (0.0% vs. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Non-Farm Employment Change (261K vs. 312K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Rate (4.1% vs. 4.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Trade Balances (-43.5B vs. -43.3B est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down; Tokyo was closed
  • European markets are mostly lower – Germany, U.K. and STOXX 600 are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • GBP/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Gold
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.343% down from November 2 close of 2.347%; 30-years is at 2.822% down from 2.829%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2574.29, 2566.17 and 2560.23
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2581.51, 2588.40 and 2590.65
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2581.25, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2576.00, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2576.75 and the index closed at 2579.85 – a spread of about 3.25 points; futures closed at 2576.75 for the day; the fair value is 0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.25; Dow up by +38.00; and NASDAQ up by +31.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A near doji candle close to all time high;
  • Last week’s pivot point 2569.35; R1=2594.70, R2=2608.33; S1=2555.72, S2=2530.37; S1 was breached after three weeks
  • An up week – seventh in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A dragonfly doji pattern following a small bodied red candle that had gapped up at the open
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2575.71; R1=2585.25, R2=2590.65; S1=2570.31, S2=2560.77; S1/S2  were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Sideways move since 2:00 PM on November 2; near a prior resistance level around 2578.00
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 6:00 PM October 22 has broken; a new reverse sequence is being established
  • Above flat 20-bar EMA, which is above flat 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Sideways move since 7:00 PM on November 2 after rising from the low s of 2562.50 at 10:00 AM
  • At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday November 2. NASDAQ Composite, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index were down. Market opened near the lows and then mostly moved higher during the day. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made doji patterns with very small or non-existent upper shadow.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance
  3. Technology
  4. Utility
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Heath Care

 

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