Morning Notes – Wednesday November 8, 2017

/ November 8, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down
  • Drifting mostly down since 2:30 AM after bouncing off the lows of 2579.75 reached at 6:30 PM on Tuesday
  • Odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for break above 2587.50 and below 2582.25  for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney and Seoul closed up; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Mumbai were down
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K. and Switzerland are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.307% on November 7 down from November 6 close of 2.320%; 30-years closed at 2.769% down from 2.797%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2584.35, 2581.98 and 2574.29
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2597.02, 2603.34 and 2609.66
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2587.50, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2583.00, the low of 1:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2587.25 and the index closed at 2590.64 – a spread of about 3.50 points; futures closed at 2586.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is o the down side – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -3.25; Dow by -21.00; and NASDAQ by -1.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A shaved top doji candle with lower shadow almost equal to real body
  • Last week’s pivot point 2580.81; R1=2595.45, R2=2603.06; S1=2573.20, S2=2558.56; No levels were breached weeks
  • An up week – eighth in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A small red doji candle that made all time high
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2590.67; R1=2596.99, R2=2603.34; S1=2584.32, S2=2578.00; R1 & S1 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting up since the lows of 2579.75 made at 6:00 PM on Tuesday; at 10:00 AM on November 7, broke below the upper limit of a channel which was acting as a resistance till November 6, it is again acting as a resistance
  • Above an uptrend line since the low of 2541.50 at 12:00 PM on October 25; two touches
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions
  • At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • During NYSE session on November 7, tried to test the high made during the Asian session but failed; after a decline to 2579.75, which was a congestion zone pre-open on November 6, at 6:30 PM the futures are rising
  • At/below flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at/below a flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday November 7. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up. S&P 500 and DJIA made doji patterns. NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made spinning top candles. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average are breaking down.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Finance

 

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