Uptrend line since 4:40 AM with 2 touches; also an emerging up sloping flag
Odds are for increased volatility; higher chances for a down day; chances for an up day are significant – watch for break above 2580.25 and below 2572.75 for change of fortunes
Key economic data:
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 100.8) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Mumbai were up
European markets are mostly lower – Germany and Italy are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Silver
Coffee
Cotton (unch.)
NatGas
Gold
Copper (unch.)
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Cocoa
10-yrs yield is at 2.375% up from November 9 close of 2.331%; 30-years is at 2.858% up from 2.806%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2576.46, 2566.33 and 2559.94
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2586.48, 2592.33 and 2597.02
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2580.25, the low of 6:30 PM on November 8 and break below 2572.75, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2582.00 and the index closed at 2584.62 – a spread of about 2.75 points; futures closed at 2584.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.00
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -6.50; Dow by -20.00; and NASDAQ by -14.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Side-to-Down
15-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A shaved top doji candle with lower shadow almost equal to real body
Last week’s pivot point 2580.81; R1=2595.45, R2=2603.06; S1=2573.20, S2=2558.56; No levels were breached weeks
An up week – eighth in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A dragonfly pattern; RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.5
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2579.15; R1=2591.97, R2=2599.32; S1=2571.80, S2=2558.98; S1/S2/S3 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Drifting down since the high of 2594.50 at 8:00 PM on Wednesday; a double top forming; broke below prior low and the bounce found resistance at 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA; drifting down since midnight
Broken below an uptrend line since the low of 2541.50 at 12:00 PM on October 25;
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; another break below occurred
Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Declining since 12:00 midnight following 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the sharp decline on November 9
Thursday
8:30 PM on November 8; got rejected at 20-bar EMA at 2:30 AM;
Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is near 2566.00 is achieved, it was also near an intermediate support zone; the 161.8% extension is near 257.50, which is the next target and near a support zone around 2550.50
Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Downtrend since 9:00 PM n November 8
Bouncing off after a breach of the lower bounds of the envelop (20 – 17%) and Bollinger Band (20 – 2 std dev); near 20-bar EMA, which is acting as a resistance since midnight
Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday November 9. The day’s range was large and at the lows the indices were down 0.9% to 1.5%. The bounce started id-day and recovered a major part of decline. At the end of the day, most indices made either a dragonfly doji or a hammer pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average continued its fall. Break over either extremes – high or low – will be critical in giving clues for net few day’s market direction.
