Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are down- Drifting lower since 3:00 AM
- At the lower bound of a descending triangle; break below 2571.500 will have support near 2563.25 and target near 2557.25
- Odds are for a down day and downward pressure after any bounce – watch for break above 2576.25 for change of fortunes
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong were up
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- EUR/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Coffee
|
- NatGas
- Platinum (unch.)
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.384% up from November 10 close of 2.400%; 30-years is at 2.858% down from 2.880%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2575.57, 2566.33 and 2559.94
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2586.27, 2592.33 and 2597.02
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2576.25, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2571.50, the low of 4:30 AM on November 10
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2580.25 and the index closed at 2582.30 – a spread of about 2.00 points; futures closed at 2579.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.00; Dow by -83.00; and NASDAQ by -24.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Side-to-Down
- 30-Min: Side-to-Down
- 15-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- A spinning top candle with almost equal length upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point 2581.88; R1=2597.44, R2=2612.57; S1=2566.75, S2=2551.19; R1/ and S1 were breached
- A down week – first in last five weeks; second in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A small spinning top candle with small upper and lower shadows
- RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.5
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
- Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2580.56; R1=2585.55, R2=2588.80; S1=2577.31, S2=2572.32; No levels were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Drifting down since 10:00 PM on Sunday; forming a descending triangle with lower limit near 2571.50; at the lower limit; a break below will have 100% extension target near 2557.25, which is close to the congestion zone around 2555.50 made on October 26
- Broken below an uptrend line since the low of 2541.50 at 12:00 PM on October 25; Sunday’s high was rejected at the broken trend line
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; another break below occurred
- Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Near the middle of a horizontal channel – high near 2593.50 and low near 2563.25; the bias is down since the second high of 2594.50 on November 8;
- Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is near 2566.00 is achieved, it was also near an intermediate support zone; the 161.8% extension is near 2557.50, which is the next target and near a support zone around 2550.50; getting rejected after breaking above the intermediate low of the double-top
- Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Downtrend since 10:30 PM n November 12
- Near the lower bounds of the envelop (20 – 17%) and Bollinger Band (20 – 2 std dev);
- Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday November 10. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 were higher. The day’s range was small and most indices made patterns that indicate indecision.
For the week, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index advanced. Most major indices made spinning top candle. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 made large red candles with little or no lower shadow.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Real Estate (unch.)
|
- Energy
- Materials
- Finance
- Technology (unch.)
- Utility
- Heath Care
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday November 10. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 were higher. The day’s range was small and most indices made patterns that indicate indecision.
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