Morning Notes – Tuesday November 14, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down
  • Drifting lower in steps since 3:00 PM on Monday
  • In the lower half of a horizontal channel with high of 2585.50 and low of 2571.50
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2580.50 and break below 2571.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Core PPI (0.4% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • PPI (0.4% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K is up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum (unch.)
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.390% down from November 13 close of 2.400%; 30-years is at 2.851% down from 2.869%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2580.73, 2574.48 and 2566.33
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2587.66, 2592.33 and 2597.02
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2580.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2575.25, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2583.00 and the index closed at 2584.84 – a spread of about 1.75 points; futures closed at 2582.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.00; Dow by -40.00; and NASDAQ by -4.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Down-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A spinning top candle with almost equal length upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point 2581.88; R1=2597.44, R2=2612.57; S1=2566.75, S2=2551.19; R1/ and S1 were breached
  • A down week – first in last five weeks; second in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A bullish engulfing candle; the gap created on November 9 still exists;
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2582.33; R1=2590.17, R2=2595.51; S1=2576.99, S2=2569.15; R1 and S1 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways around 20-Bar EMA; Drifting down since 10:00 PM on Sunday; the descending triangle has morphed into a channel
  • Broken below an uptrend line since the low of 2541.50 at 12:00 PM on October 25; Sunday’s high was rejected at the broken trend line; the price has moved sideways since then
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; another break below occurred
  • At/below 50-bar EMA, which is at/below 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Near the middle of a horizontal channel – high near 2585.50 and low near 2571.50; within a higher channel between 2593.50 and 2563.25
  • Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is near 2566.00 is achieved, it was also near an intermediate support zone; the 161.8% extension is near 2557.50, which is the next target and near a support zone around 2550.50; getting rejected after breaking above the intermediate low of the double-top
  • At/below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is at/below a falling 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 10:30 PM n November 12; sideways since 6:00 PM on November 13
  • Near the lower bounds of the envelop (20 – 0.21%) and Bollinger Band (20 – 2 std dev); Bollinger band is flat
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is at/below 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday November 13. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed down. Most also made a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Russell 2000 made a doji and NYSE Composite made a large green candle with small upper and lower shadows. The down gap opened on November 9 hasn’t yet been filled for S&P 500.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Finance
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  1. Energy
  2. Industrials
  3. Technology