Morning Notes – Thursday November 16, 2017

/ November 16, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Moving higher since 6:30 PM on Wednesday
  • Broken above 2572.50, which is like a neck to an irregular inverse H&S pattern; 100% extension target is near 2590.00; a downtrend line from the highs may act as a resistance
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2570.25 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Unemployment Claims (249K vs. 235K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Import Prices (0.2% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.7 vs. 24.5 est.) at 8:38 AM
    • Capacity Utilization (est. 76.3%0 at 10:00 AM
    • Industrial Production (est. 0.5%) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai closed down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Platinum (unch.)
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.335% on November 15 down from November 14 close of 2.381%; 30-years closed at 2.781% down from 2.839%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2557.45, 2553.34 and 2544.00
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2572.84, 2579.66 and 2587.66
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2575.75, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2572.50, the low of 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2563.75 and the index closed at 2564.62 – a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2565.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the up side – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.75; Dow by +71.00; and NASDAQ by +29.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side-to-Down
  • 30-Min: Side-To-Down
  • 15-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A spinning top candle with almost equal length upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point 2581.88; R1=2597.44, R2=2612.57; S1=2566.75, S2=2551.19; R1/ and S1 were breached
  • A down week – first in last five weeks; second in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A spinning top candle with upper shadow smaller than the lower shadow; broken below recent support near 2566.00 but above October 25 low of 2544.00
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Below 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2564.97; R1=2572.49, R2=2580.36; S1=2577.10, S2=2549.58; S1/S2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving higher since bouncing off the support of 2555.50 at 8:00 AM on November 15; nearing a downtrend line from the highs
  • Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is 2566.00 and 161.8% extension is achieved
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is broken again
  • At falling 50-bar EMA, which is above a turning 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Above an uptrend line from the lows made at 9:30 AM on Wednesday;
  • Broken below a horizontal channel – high near 2585.50 and low near 2571.50 – on Tuesday; 100% extension target is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 2548.75
  • Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which has crossed above a rising 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Envelop and Bollinger Band are sloping up since midnight;
  • Near the upper bounds of the Bollinger Band  (20-2 std dev)
  • Near the middle of the envelop (20 – 0.247%)
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday November 15. The indices swooned down in the early trading before recovering in late morning trading. For the rest of the day indices generally drifted down.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are breaking below their November lows and are challenging the lows of October 24/25. NASDAQ Composite made a doji pattern. NYSE Composite seems to be breaking down. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average continue their move down.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  1. Finance

 

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