Mostly moving higher since 10:30 PM on November 27
Breaking above a horizontal channel on 30-min TF with an up bias since 2:30 AM on November 23
Odds are for a sideway day – watch for break above 2605.50 and break below 2602.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
CB Consumer Confidence (est. 123.9) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Seoul closed higher
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Palladium
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Copper
Sugar (unch.)
Coffee
Cotton
10-yrs yield is 2.321% down from November 27 close of 2.328%; 30-years is at 2.767% up from 2.765%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2595.23, 2589.17 and 2577.62
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2606.41, 2609.77 and 2613.14
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2605.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2602.00, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2600.50 and the index closed at 2601.42- a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2601.75 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.75; Dow by +33.00; and NASDAQ by +8.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-to-Side
15-Min: Up-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadow; three day pattern is a morning star one, albeit, without any decline
Last week’s pivot point 2594.96; R1=2611.67, R2=2620.93; S1=2585.70, S2=2568.99; R1 was breached
An up week after two down weeks; third up week in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole is near 2639.41; and
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole is near 2612.97; and
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A spinning top candle with small body and small upper and lower shadows
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; the index is higher but the RSI-14 is in 60’s
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2602.23; R1=2605.60, R2=2609.77; S1=2598.06; S2=2594.69; R1/R2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Bouncing off 20-bar EMA for fourth time; staying mostly above 20-bar EMA since 8:00 AM on November 20
14-bar RSI is flashing divergence – on November 21 the index was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the index was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47, and at 6:00 AM on Monday, the index reached 2604.50 but the RSI managed only 56.4;
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21
Higher highs and higher lows since 8:00 AM on November 15
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
A down trend line from the high made on November 21 was broken to the upside on Friday and was tested on Sunday
Moving mostly sideways since 10:00 AM on November 21
A horizontal channel is emerging with upper bound near 2603.50/2604.50 and the lower bound near 2598.00/2596.50
Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving side ways since mid-day on November 21
The Bollinger Band is expanding since 1:45 AM (on Monday it started to expand at 3:00 AM) with the price hugging the upper band
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) has been declining since 4:15 AM and is in oversold territory at 7:00 AM
Below 20-bar EMA and at 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday November 27. The day’s range was small and most of the action was sideways. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs.
