Mostly moving higher since 10:30 PM on November 29
Near Tuesday’s high and a break above will make a not a textbook style, horizontal channel
Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break below 2628.00
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (238K vs. 241K est.) at 8:30 AM
Core PCE Price Index (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Personal Spending (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Personal Income (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8L30 AM
Chicago PMI (est. 62.2) at 9:45 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo was higher
European markets are mostly higher – U.K. is lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Silver
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold (unch.)
Copper
Palladium
Sugar (unch.)
Coffee
Cotton
10-yrs yield is 2.392% up from November 29 close of 2.376%; 30-years is at 2.831% up from 2.817%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2620.32, 2610.48 and 2605.44
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2634.89, 2641.66 and 2648.44
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2634.00, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 2628.00, the low of 4:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2625.50 and the index closed at 2626.07 – a spread of about 0.50 points; futures closed at 2625.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75; Dow by +90.00; and NASDAQ by +21.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadow; three day pattern is a morning star one, albeit, without any decline
Last week’s pivot point 2594.96; R1=2611.67, R2=2620.93; S1=2585.70, S2=2568.99; R1 was breached
An up week after two down weeks; third up week in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole is near 2639.41; and
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole is near 2612.97; and
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A red doji just near the previous close
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; the index is higher and the RSI-14 is rising too but below previous high
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2627.09; R1=2633.87, R2=2641.66; S1=2619.30; S2=2612.52; R1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
The price action similar to that on Wednesday pre-open; rising after making another rounding trough, which touched the EMA-20; futures up to near pattern high;
Trending up since 8:00 Am on November 15 with higher highs and higher lows;
14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the index was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the index was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; the RSI is rising and may make a new high which will nullify the divergence signal
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
A double-top or horizontal channel being formed; high at 9:30 AM on November 29 was 2634.25 and the high at 6:00 AM was 2634.00; the intermediate low or the lower bound is near 2621.50
The 61.8% extension target is near 2641.75 and the 100% extension target is near 2646.50
Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving side ways since 4:00 PM on November 28
The Bollinger Band is expanding since 2:00 AM; price hugged the upper limit till 6:45 AM and now is moving sideways
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) has been declining since 5:30 AM after making bearish or negative divergenc
Above 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday November 29. The day’s range was small. S&P 500, NAADAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed up. DJT made all time high. All others also made all time highs.
