Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower
- Moving higher after dropping to 2631.25 at 5:30 AM along with European markets
- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2645.75 and 2651.50
- Key economic data due:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.4) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo and Sydney were up; Hong Kong, Mumbai and Seoul were down
- European markets are mostly lower – U.K. and Switzerland are higher
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Copper
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Silver
- Gold (unch.)
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- 10-yrs yield is 2.378% down from November 30 close of 2.417%; 30-years is at 2.781% down from 2.832%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2641.04, 2633.93 and 2620.32
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2657.74, 2670.23 and 2682.71
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2645.75, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2631.25, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2646.75 and the index closed at 2647.58 – a spread of about 0.75 points; futures closed at 2648.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by 3.25; Dow by -8.00; and NASDAQ by -27.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-to-Side
- 15-Min: Up-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- A large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadow; three day pattern is a morning star one, albeit, without any decline
- Last week’s pivot point 2594.96; R1=2611.67, R2=2620.93; S1=2585.70, S2=2568.99; R1 was breached
- An up week after two down weeks; third up week in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole is near 2639.41; and
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole is near 2612.97; and
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A green bodied candle with no lower shadow and the close was in the upper half of day’s range
- RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; the index is higher and the RSI-14 is rising too but still below previous high, though nearing it
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2646.42; R1=2658.90, R2=2670.23; S1=2635.09; S2=2622.61; R1/R2/R3 were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Drifting down after making a high of 2658.50 at 12:00 PM on November 30; bouncing off the 20-bar EMA; has mostly stayed above 20-bar EMA since 8:00 AM on November 20
- Trending up since 8:00 Am on November 15 with higher highs and higher lows;
- 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the index was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the index was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; the RSI is rising and may make a new high which will nullify the divergence signal
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21
- Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- At the down trend line from highs; bouncing off the upper bound of a horizontal channel that was broken on November 30
- Broke above a double-top or horizontal channel and achieved 161.8% extension target near 2654.25
- Crossing a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above a flattening 50-bar EMA
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving side ways with a down bias since 6:00 PM on November 30
- The Bollinger Band is expanding since 5:30 AM with price hugging the lower limit; price breached below the lower limits of both, the Bollinger Band and Envelop, at 5:45 AM and is trending up since then
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) reached 0 at 5:30 AM and then made a positive divergence at 5:45 AM / 6:00 AM; it reached the over bought territory by 7:45 AM
- Crossing 50-bar EMA which is above 20-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday November 30. The day’s range was large. Most made all time highs. NAADAQ Composite was an exception and it made a harami candlestick pattern.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
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