Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are slightly down; moving up from the low of 2620.00 at 2:45 AM
- At a resistance zone, which was prior support
- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2628.00 and 2631.50
- Key economic data due:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (190K vs. 189K est.) at 8:15 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down
- European markets are mostly down – U.K. is up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Palladium
- Cotton
|
- Crude Oil
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.331% up from December 5 close of 2.328%; 30-years is at 2.713% down from 2.732%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2621.96, 2614,35 and 2605.52
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2642.12, 2648.72 and 2657.48
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2626.50, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2622.00, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2629.00 and the index closed at 2629.57 – a spread of about 0.50 points; futures closed at 2628.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.50; Dow by -12.00; and NASDAQ by -14.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Side-to-Down
- 15-Min: Side-to-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on December 1 was a large green candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow
- Last week’s pivot point 2632.94; R1=2667.02, R2=2691.81; S1=2608.15, S2=2574.07; R1/R2/R3 were breached
- An up week; second in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A red candle with small lower shadow and larger upper shadow; a three-day evening star pattern
- RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2635.34; R1=2642.95, R2=2656.33; S1=2621.96; S2=2614.35; S1 was breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Drifting down after making a high of 2665.25 at 8:00 AM on December 4; at an uptrend line from the lows of November 15
- 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the future was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the future was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; on December 4 the RSI-14 was 66.12 and the price was at 2665.25
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
- Below falling 20-bar EMA, which is below falling 50-bar EMA
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Below a down trend line from the high of December 4; next support is at 2605.00, the low on December 1
- Below falling 20-bar EMA, which is below falling 50-bar EMA
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- An ascending triangle is emerging and the future is at the upper limit a break above will have a target near 2632.00
- Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving down since December 4 with occasional sideways moves
- The Bollinger Band has contracted and moving sideways since 2:45 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) reached 8.33 at 8:15 AM and is turning up
- At 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday December 5. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index completed a three-day evening star pattern. The Dow Jones Transportation Average made bearish engulfing. The three day price action of NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 indicate that Monday was a turning point.
Up |
Down |
- Technology
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- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
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