Morning Notes – Monday December 11, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 6:00 PM on Sunday
  • Odds are for a sideways, with an up bias – watch for break above 2656.25 and break below 2649.25
  • No Key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Cocoa
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.362% down from December 8 close of 2.383%; 30-years is at 2.745% down from 2.775%; 2-years yield is at 1.80%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2644.10, 2632.71 and 2624.75
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2657.48, 2665.19 and 2669.54
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2655.75, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2649.50, the low of 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2651.75 and the index closed at 2651.50 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2654.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25; Dow by +28.00; and NASDAQ by +1.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 15-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 8 was a small red candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2647.15; R1=2669.54, R2=2687.59; S1=2629.10, S2=2606.71; No levels were breached
  • An up week;  third in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; gap-up at the open that did not fill
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; RSI is rising now
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2649.08; R1=2654.07, R2=2656.63; S1=2646.52; S2=2641.53; R1/R2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting higher since 2:00 AM on December 6 in stairs from near the uptrend line from the lows of November 15; nearing the all time high
  • 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the future was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the future was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; on December 4 the RSI-14 was 66.12 and the price was at 2665.25; RSI is rising now
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
  • Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Near a resistance level, the prior broken support of 2656.25; moving sideways since 6:00 PM on Sunday
  • At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving up since December 6 morning
  • The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) contracted at 9:30 PM on Sunday and is maintaining that width; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.196%)
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is rising after making a low of 30.00 at 6:45 PM and %K has crossed above %D
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is at/above 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday December 8 after a gap-up open. The gap was not filled during the day. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 made dojis. NASDAQ Composite closed lower than the open.

Major indices also closed higher for the week but most closed the week lower than the open. DJT closed above the open. For the week, Energy, Utility, Healthcare and Real Estate closed lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials (unch.)
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate