S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since10:30 PM after declining from 2:30 PM high
Odds are for a sideways day, with an up bias – watch for break above 2673.00 and break below 2664.50
Key economic data:
CPI (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
Core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Mumbai were lower
European markets are mostly lower – Spain and Switzerland are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield is at 2.425% up from December 12 close of 2.403%; 30-years is at 2.796% up from 2.781%; 2-years yield is at 1.811%; the 10Year-2Year spread is at 0.614 up from 0.551
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.78, 2652.67 and 2644.10
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2669.72, 2674.48 and 2679.23
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2673.00, the high of 12:00 PM on Tuesday and break below 2664.50, the low of 2:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2667.50 and the index closed at 2664.11 – a spread of about +3.50 points; futures closed at 2667.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.00; Dow by +15.00; and NASDAQ by +20.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-to-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 8 was a small red candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point 2647.15; R1=2669.54, R2=2687.59; S1=2629.10, S2=2606.71; No levels were breached
An up week; third in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A small green candle with small upper and smaller lower shadows;
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; RSI is rising and approaching the previous high
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2664.54; R1=2669.29, R2=2674.48; S1=2659.35; S2=2654.60; R1/R2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Price action similar to that on Tuesday morning; drifting higher since 2:00 AM on December 6 in stairs from near the uptrend line from the lows of November 15; at the all time high
14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on December 11 the future was at 2667.75 and the RSI was at 78.15, on December 12 the future was at 2672.25 and the RSI at 76.79
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
At/above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Price action similar to that on Tuesday morning; near a resistance level, the all time; moving sideways since 4:30 PM on December 11
At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at a flattening 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving sideways since December 10 evening
The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) started contracting at 7:45 AM; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.196%)
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is rising after reaching 18.18 at 7:30 AM and %K has crossed above %D
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday December 12. NASADAQ Composite, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs.
