S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways with up bias since 4:30 PM on December 11
Odds are for a sideways day, with an up bias – watch for break above 2673.50 and break below 2666.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data:
Core Retail Sales (1.0% vs. 0.6% est.) at 8:30 AM
Retail Sales (0.8% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Import Prices (0.7% vs. 0.7% est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims (225K vs. 237K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai was up
European markets are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
USD/CAD
Dollar index
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Palladium
Sugar
10-yrs yield closed at 2.349% on December 13 down from December 12 close of 2.403%; 30-years closed at 2.734% down from 2.781%; 2-years yield is at 1.815%; the 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.534 down from 0.614
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.78, 2652.67 and 2644.10
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2671.88, 2674.89 and 2677.90
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2673.50, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2666.25, the low of 3:30 PM on Wednesday
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2666.25 and the index closed at 2662.85 – a spread of about +3.50 points; futures closed at 2669.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.00; Dow by +33.00; and NASDAQ by +7.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-to-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 8 was a small red candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point 2647.15; R1=2669.54, R2=2687.59; S1=2629.10, S2=2606.71; No levels were breached
An up week; third in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A small red candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow; index gave up all of its day’s gains in the last hour of trading
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; RSI is rising and approaching the previous high
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2665.86; R1=2668.87, R2=2674.89; S1=2659.84; S2=2656.83; R1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Price action similar to that on Wednesday and Tuesday morning; drifting higher since 2:00 AM on December 6 in stairs from near the uptrend line from the lows of November 15; at the all time high
14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on December 11 the future was at 2667.75 and the RSI was at 78.15, on December 12 the future was at 2672.25 and the RSI at 76.79; RSI drifting lower
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Price action similar to that on Wednesday and Tuesday morning; near a resistance level, the all time; moving sideways since 4:30 PM on December 11
At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at/above a flattening 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving sideways since December 10 evening
The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) started contracting at 6:30 AM; price tagging the lower band; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.196%)
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is falling; %K below 20 after going above it at 7:15 AM; %K has crossed below %D
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday December 13. S&P 500 closed down a bit after making all time high. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs.
