S&P Futures are higher; mostly moving up since 10:00 AM on December 18
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2698.00 and break below 2692.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Building Permits (1.30 vs. 1.27M est.) at 8:30 AM
Housing Starts (1.30M vs. 1.25M est.) at 8:30 Am
Current Account (-101B vs. -116B est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Seoul were down
European markets are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield is at 2.461% up from December 18 close of 2.392%; 30-years is at 2.814% up from 2.744%; 2-years yield is at 1.865%; the 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.596 up from 0.534
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2685.92, 2672.20 and 2659.14
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2694.44, 2699.40 and 2703.83
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2698.00, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 2692.25, the low of 3:30 PM on December 18
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2694.75 and the index closed at 2690.16 – a spread of about +4.50 points; futures closed at 2694.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00; Dow by +59.00; and NASDAQ down by -1.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-To-Side
15-Min: Up-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 15 was a large green candle following a near doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2668.97; R1=2686.47, R2=2697.13; S1=2658.31, S2=2640.81; R1 was breached
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A green candle that gapped up at the open; the close was in the middle of the day’s range
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; RSI is rising and is near the high
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2690.35; R1=2694.78, R2=2699.40; S1=2685.73; S2=2681.30; R1/R2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures rising since 4:00 PM on December 14; moving sideways since 8:00 AM on December 18
Broke above a triangle, not a strict one, for the second time on Friday; the height is between 45 and 60 points; the break out point is near 2666.25; the 61.8% extension target is between 2694.00 and 2704.00; the 100% extension target is between 2712.50 and 2727.50
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Rising since 4:30 PM on December 14; moving sideways since 9:30 AM on December 18
RSI-14 crossed below 65 and has been staying below it since 2:30 PM on December 18, which indicates more downward pressure
At/above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 2:30 PM on December 18
The Bandwidth stayed below 0.10 from 8:30 PM to 3:15 AM and the fell back under it by 7:15 AM
MFI-14 is trending down and is dipped below 25 at 7:15 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) turned down at 8:15 AM above 88; %K crossed below %D
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday December 18. The major indices gapped up at the open and even though they did not close the gap, the day’s bias was down after the first hour of trading. Most indies made all time highs. Russell 2000 is still below it.
