S&P Futures are higher; mostly moving up since 4:30 PM on December 19
Near a resistance level around 2692.25, which is the prior broken support
Futures are poised delicately with reasonable potential to break up or down;
Odds are for a sideways – watch for break above 2693.25 and break below 2689.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Existing Home Sales (est. 5.53 M) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Sydney were up
European markets are mostly lower – U.K. is up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.463% on December 19 up from December 18 close of 2.392%; 30-years closed at 2.821% up from 2.744%; 2-years yield is at 1.857%; the 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.606 up from 0.596
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2672.20, 2659.14 and 2652.24
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2687.14, 2694.44 and 2699.25
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2693.25, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2689.00, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2684.25 and the index closed at 2681.47 – a spread of about +2.75 points; futures closed at 2684.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.00; Dow by +103.00; and NASDAQ by +27.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-To-Side
15-Min: Up-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 15 was a large green candle following a near doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2668.97; R1=2686.47, R2=2697.13; S1=2658.31, S2=2640.81; R1 was breached
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A bearish engulfing candle over a green candle that gapped up at the open; very small upper and lower shadows
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2685.55; R1=2690.36, R2=2699.25; S1=2676.66; S2=2671.85; S1/S2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures rising since 4:00 PM on December 19 after falling during the day and breaking below a horizontal channel; the 2:00 PM to 6:00PM candles formed a morning star pattern
Broke below a horizontal channel at 8:00 AM on Tuesday; the height of the pattern is approximately 6.00 points; the 161.8% extension target near 2983.00 was achieved on Tuesday; the price is back the broken lower bound of the pattern, which may act as a resistance
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Rising since 4:30 PM on December 19, which was a dragonfly doji, a short term reversal pattern; at the a resistance zone near 2692.00, which was a prior support level
RSI-14 declines to 23 at 12:00 Noon and the made a divergence at 4:30 PM by declining to only 29.39; it crossed above 40 during early Asian session; it has been rising since but still below 65
At/above a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at/above a flattening 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 2:30 PM on December 18
The band contracted during the Asian session after the expansion during Tuesday; the Bandwidth has stayed near 0.10 since 6:00 PM
MFI-14 reached above 80 during early Asian session and since then it has stayed above 50 while moving sideways between 80 and 50; it is rising since 6:30 AM and is near 80 again
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) turned up at 6:15 AM from below 20.00; %K crossed above %D
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday December 19. Dow Jones Transportation Average was up. Most indices also made a bearish engulfing candle over a candle, Monday’s, that had gapped up at the open. A gap down at the open today will create an island or abandoned baby pattern at the top, which is bearish in nature.
Market opened at the top and then traded down for the rest of the day. DJT recovered most of its losses by the end of the day and made a doji candle with very small upper shadow and larger lower shadow. Russell 2000 made a dark cloud cover patter.
