Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; mostly moving up since 3:30 AM
- Near a resistance level around 2688.25
- The bias on the 30-minute and 15-minute is to the downside, though reversal signals are gathering up
- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2688.25 and break below 2683.75 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- Final GDP (3.2% vs. 3.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (26.2 vs. 21.5 est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (245K vs. 232K est.)) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong were up
- European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Spain are lower
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Copper
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Cocoa
|
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.497% on December 20 up from December 19 close of 2.463%; 30-years closed at 2.876% up from 2.821%; 2-years yield is at 1.853%; the 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.644 up from 0.606
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2676.11, 2672.20 and 2659.14
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2684.80, 2687.14 and 2694.44
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2688.25, the high of 1:30 PM on December 20 and break below 2683.75, the high of 2:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2682.75 and the index closed at 2679.25 – a spread of about +3.50 points; futures closed at 2681.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.25; Dow by +30.00; and NASDAQ by +8.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up-to-Side
- 30-Min: Side-to-Down
- 15-Min: Side-to-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on December 15 was a large green candle following a near doji for previous week
- Last week’s pivot point 2668.97; R1=2686.47, R2=2697.13; S1=2658.31, S2=2640.81; R1 was breached
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A red candle that opened near the middle of previous red bodied candle and closed below its lows; small upper and lower shadows
- RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2682.12; R1=2688.36, R2=2697.02; S1=2673.24; S2=2667.22; R1/S1 were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Futures rising since 4:00 PM on December 19 after falling during the day for the second time in a row; 10:00 AM candle had a long lower shadow and small real body and its low is acting as a support
- Broke below a horizontal channel at 8:00 AM on Tuesday; the height of the pattern is approximately 6.00 points; the 161.8% extension target near 2983.00 was achieved on Tuesday; the price has turned back from just above the broken lower bound of the pattern, which is acting as a resistance
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
- At drooping 20-bar EMA, which is at/above flattening 50-bar EMA
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Early morning price action similar to that on Wednesday but at a lower level – rising since previous NYSE session close and act a prior broken support level and following a reversal candle during the day, which is acting as a support
- RSI-14 hasn’t broken above 65 since 2:30 PM on December 18 except once for one candle
- Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, but below flattening 50-bar EMA
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 2:30 PM on December 18; the bias is to the downside since 9:30 AM on December 19
- The band contracted from 10:30 PM on Wednesday to 5:00 AM; it is expanding since then
- MFI-14 declined from 8:30 PM and made a low of 26.43 at 3:15 AM; it is above 80 since 6:0 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) made a positive at 3:15 with a %K low of 8.33; it crossed above 90 at 4:45 AM and has stayed above it since then
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday December 20. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed lower. DJIA made another bearish engulfing. Most of the decline happened in the afternoon session.
Up |
Down |
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
You must be logged in to post a comment.