S&P Futures are higher; mostly moving up since 3:30 AM
Near a resistance level around 2688.25
The bias on the 30-minute and 15-minute is to the downside, though reversal signals are gathering up
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2688.25 and break below 2683.75 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Final GDP (3.2% vs. 3.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (26.2 vs. 21.5 est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims (245K vs. 232K est.)) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong were up
European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Spain are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.497% on December 20 up from December 19 close of 2.463%; 30-years closed at 2.876% up from 2.821%; 2-years yield is at 1.853%; the 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.644 up from 0.606
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2676.11, 2672.20 and 2659.14
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2684.80, 2687.14 and 2694.44
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2688.25, the high of 1:30 PM on December 20 and break below 2683.75, the high of 2:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2682.75 and the index closed at 2679.25 – a spread of about +3.50 points; futures closed at 2681.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.25; Dow by +30.00; and NASDAQ by +8.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-to-Side
30-Min: Side-to-Down
15-Min: Side-to-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 15 was a large green candle following a near doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2668.97; R1=2686.47, R2=2697.13; S1=2658.31, S2=2640.81; R1 was breached
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A red candle that opened near the middle of previous red bodied candle and closed below its lows; small upper and lower shadows
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2682.12; R1=2688.36, R2=2697.02; S1=2673.24; S2=2667.22; R1/S1 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures rising since 4:00 PM on December 19 after falling during the day for the second time in a row; 10:00 AM candle had a long lower shadow and small real body and its low is acting as a support
Broke below a horizontal channel at 8:00 AM on Tuesday; the height of the pattern is approximately 6.00 points; the 161.8% extension target near 2983.00 was achieved on Tuesday; the price has turned back from just above the broken lower bound of the pattern, which is acting as a resistance
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
At drooping 20-bar EMA, which is at/above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Early morning price action similar to that on Wednesday but at a lower level – rising since previous NYSE session close and act a prior broken support level and following a reversal candle during the day, which is acting as a support
RSI-14 hasn’t broken above 65 since 2:30 PM on December 18 except once for one candle
Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, but below flattening 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 2:30 PM on December 18; the bias is to the downside since 9:30 AM on December 19
The band contracted from 10:30 PM on Wednesday to 5:00 AM; it is expanding since then
MFI-14 declined from 8:30 PM and made a low of 26.43 at 3:15 AM; it is above 80 since 6:0 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) made a positive at 3:15 with a %K low of 8.33; it crossed above 90 at 4:45 AM and has stayed above it since then
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday December 20. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed lower. DJIA made another bearish engulfing. Most of the decline happened in the afternoon session.
