S&P Futures are down to little changed; mostly moving sideways since 6:30 PM on December 21
In the middle of a horizontal channel on 30-Minute chart
Odds are for a sideways move with down bias from current levels – watch for break above 2689.50 and break below 2683.50 for change of fortunes
No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai and Mumbai were up; Tokyo and Seoul were down; Hong Kong and Sydney were closed
European markets are closed
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Platinum
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.479% up from December 22 close of 2.485%;
30-years is at 2.825% up from 2.832%
2-years yield is at 1.908% up from 1.882%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.571 down from 0.603
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2676.11, 2672.20 and 2668.45
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2684.43, 2692.64 and 2694.44
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2689.50, the high of 3:30 PM on December 22 and break below 2683.75, the low of 8:30 PM on December 25
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2688.75 and the index closed at 2683.34 – a spread of about +4.25 points; futures closed at 2686.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.75; Dow down by -42.00; and NASDAQ down by -35.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 15 was a large green candle following a near doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2668.97; R1=2686.47, R2=2697.13; S1=2658.31, S2=2640.81; R1 was breached
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A near doji candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2682.27; R1=2686.42, R2=2689.49; S1=2679.20; S2=2675.05; S1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures moving sideways since 4:00 on December 21; in the middle of a horizontal channel – high of 2687.50 and the low of 2679.00
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
At flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving sideways since 8:30 PM on December 25 near the middle of a horizontal channel – high of 2691.50 and low of 2680.75
RSI-14 has fallen below 50, again, at 6:00 AM is staying below 65 since 2:30 PM on December 21; has crossed above 65 only three times since 2:30 PM on December 18
At/below flat 50-bar EMA, which is below flat 20-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 11:00 PM on December 21 with a down bias
The band contracted at midnight, with bandwidth below 0.10, and remained so till 6:15 AM
MFI-14 is declining from 1:00 AM high of 84.34; dipped below 20 at 7:00 and now coming off it
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is toggling around 20 since 4:45 AM
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday December 22. The day’s action was small and most indices made doji like patterns. Russell 2000 made a larger red real body bearish harami patter. Dow Jones Transportation Average made a larger green bullish harami candle.
