S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 5:00 AM
Daily trend is up but the past few day’s price action is putting pressure down; break below Friday’s close is critical
Odds are for an up day but sideways-to-down move from pre open levels – watch for break above 2686.50 and break below 2680.75 for change of fortunes
No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai and Hong Kong were up; Sydney and Mumbai were down; Tokyo was closed
European markets are mostly down – Italy is up and Switzerland is closed
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Silver
Copper
Sugar
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.431% up from December 29 close of 2.405%;
30-years is at 2.768% up from 2.739%
2-years yield is at 1.923% up from 1.887%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.508 down from 0.518
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2672.20, 2668.45, 2659.14
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2685.86, 2692.12 and 2694.44
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2686.50, the high of 3:30 PM on December 29 and break below 2675.25, the low of 4:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2677.50 and the index closed at 2673.61 – a spread of about +4.25 points; futures closed at 2676.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.50; Dow by +89.00; and NASDAQ by +26.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 29 was a small red candle with larger upper shadow and following a doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2679.78; R1=2685.95, R2=2698.29; S1=2667.44, S2=2661.21; S1 was breached
A down week; first in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A relatively large red candle with small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19; RSI has fallen below 70
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2679.78; R1=2685.95, R2=2698.29; S1=2667.44; S2=2661.27; R1/R2/S1/S2/S3 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 following a sharp decline near the close of year’s trading; back in the horizontal channel – high of 2687.50 and the low of 2679.00 – after a break below it
Mostly sideways move since 12:00 Noon on December 15
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
At flattening 50-bar EMA, which is above/at flattening 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving higher following a decline on Friday and a sideway move during Asian session
Back in horizontal channel – high of 2691.50 and low of 2680.75
RSI-14 fell below 20 at the close on December 29; it rose from that level and spent most of Asian session around 50; it is now trying to break above 65
Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 11:00 PM on December 21 with a down bias
The band contracted at midnight, with bandwidth below 0.10, and remained so till 6:15 AM
MFI-14 is declining from 1:00 AM high of 84.34; dipped below 20 at 7:00 and now coming off it
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is toggling around 20 since 4:45 AM
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday December 29, the last trading day of 2017. The decline was relatively large and most of the candlestick patterns have bearish connotations. NYSE Composite made a bearish engulfing pattern after making all time highs.
