S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways 10:00 PM near the resistance level of 2698.25
Odds are for a sideways-to-up day – watch for break above 2698.75 and break below 2691.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.3) at 10:00 AM
FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai was down; Tokyo was closed
European markets are mostly up – Italy is down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Gold
Platinum
Cotton
NatGas
Silver
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.447% down from January 2 close of 2.465%;
30-years is at 2.791% down from 2.811%
2-years yield is at 1.915% down from 1.927%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.532 up from 0.508
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2687.83, 2672.20 and 2668.45
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2700.35, 2704.88 and 2713.88
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2698.75, the high of 6.00 AM on December 29 and break below 2691.00, the low of 3:30 PM on January 2
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2695.75 and the index closed at 2695.81 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2693.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.50; Dow by +52.00; and NASDAQ by +7.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side-to-Up
15-Min: Side-to-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 29 was a small red candle with larger upper shadow and following a doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2679.78; R1=2685.95, R2=2698.29; S1=2667.44, S2=2661.21; S1 was breached
A down week; first in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A green real bodied candle that opened at the middle of previous red candle and closed above it highs
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19; RSI has fallen below 70 and is now trying to regain it
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2691.35; R1=2700.35, R2=2704.88; S1=2686.82; S2=2677.82; R1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29; now at the high of December 18; forming a horizontal channel – high of 2687.50 and the low of 2679.00 – after a break below it; the 61.8% extension target is near 2710.25; using the low of December 29, the target is near 2717.50, which also coincides with the 100% extension target of the horizontal channel
Mostly sideways move since 12:00 Noon on December 15 in a horizontal channel
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions was reasserted on November 21;
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Emerging ascending triangle – break out point is 2698.25; the 61.8% extension target is near 2717.00 and 100% extension target is near 2728.75
RSI-14 fell below 65 at 5:30 AM after hover above it since 8:30 AM on December 2; did not cross above 80
At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since midnight
The band contracted at start of Asian session; then expanded very little during European session; bandwidth dipped below 0.15 at 11:00 AM and dipped below 0.10 at 00:30 AM; it is hovering round 0.10 since4:00 AM; at 0.08 at 8:15 AM
MFI-14 is declining from 2:30 AM high of 93.61 in steps; bounced off 50.00 at 7:00 AM; at 56.29 at 8:15 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K reached at 6:45, bounced up and declined to 9.09; now coming off 20
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday January 2, the first trading day of 2018. Most indices made all time highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average did not. It also made a doji candlestick. Most indices made relatively large green real bodied candle with almost no upper shadow. NASDAQ Composite is breaking above a small own sloping flag.
