Morning Notes – Thursday January 4, 2018

• Confirmed Uptrend
• December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
• Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%

• The week ending on December 29 was a small red candle with larger upper shadow and following a doji for previous week
• Last week’s pivot point 2679.78; R1=2685.95, R2=2698.29; S1=2667.44, S2=2661.21; S1 was breached
• A down week;  first in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
• Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
  • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
  • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
  • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved
• Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
  • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
  • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
  • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
• Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
• Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
• Confirmed uptrend

Daily

• A green real bodied candle that gapped up at the open and did not fill the gap; almost no upper and lower shadows
• RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19; RSI has regained 70+ after dipping below it for few days
• Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
• Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
• Pivot Point=2708.40; R1=2719.03, R2=2725.00; S1=2702.43; S2=2691.80; R1/R2/R3 were breached
• Confirmed Uptrend

• Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29; broke above a horizontal channel; the 61.8% Fib extension target near 2710.25 was achieved on January 3; the 100% Fib extension target near 2717.50 was achieved during European session; the 161.8% Fib extension target is near 2729.50
• Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
• Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA

• Broke above an ascending triangle; the 61.8% Fib extension target near 2717.00 is achieved; the 100% Fib extension target is near 2728.75
• RSI-14 crossed above 80 in early trading on Tuesday; fell below 65 at 4:30 PM and is hovering around it since then
• Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA

• Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been gradually moving up in steps since 4:00 PM on December 29; expanding and moving up during NYSE session but contracting and moving sideways at other times
• The band contracted early in Asian session with Bandwidth nearing 0.10; it the expanded till 2:00 AM; it contracted till 4:30 Am and BW dipped below 0.10; BW is hovering around 0.10 since then
• MFI-14 is declining since 11:30 PM after making a high of 80.89; it mostly stayed above 50
• The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K reached 100 at 4:30 AM then dipped to 8.33 at 5:45 AM; it rose o 100 by 7:15 AM and then briefly declined to 64.71 before regaining 80 at 8:00 AM
• Broke above an ascending triangle at 6:18 AM after a brief break-up-and-then-test; the height of the pattern is 6.75 and the break out is at 2714.25; the 61.8% Fib extension target near 2718.50 is achieved; the 100% Fib extension target is near 2721.00; and the 261.8% Fib extension target is near 2732.00

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