S&P Futures are higher; moving gradually higher since 4:30 PM on December 29; started moving up at 1:30 AM after moving sideways from NSE close
Jobs data will affect the pre-open and early morning price move
Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2721.50 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Non-Farm Employment Change (148K vs. 190K est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate (4.1% vs. 4.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
Average Hourly Earnings 90.3% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est. 57.6) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher
European markets are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 2.453% up from January 3 close of 2.447%;
30-years closed at 2.786% up from 2.785%
2-years yield is at 1.976% up from 1.952%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.477 down from 0.501
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2722.20, 2714.37 and 2707.67
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2729.29, 2734.34 and 2739.38
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2732.00, the high of 5.30 AM and break below 2721.50, the low of 11:30 AM on January 4
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2724.00 and the index closed at 2723.99 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2723.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.25; Dow by +89.00; and NASDAQ by +25.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on December 29 was a small red candle with larger upper shadow and following a doji for previous week
Last week’s pivot point 2679.78; R1=2685.95, R2=2698.29; S1=2667.44, S2=2661.21; S1 was breached
A down week; first in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A green real bodied candle that gapped up at the open and did not fill the gap; almost no lower shadow but relatively large upper shadow
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19; RSI has regained 70+ after dipping below it for few days
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2724.12; R1=2729.16, R2=2734.34; S1=2718.94; S2=2713.90; R1/R2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29; broke above a horizontal channel; the 161.8% Fib extension target near 2729.50 was achieved overnight; the 261.8% extension target is near 2747.75
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke above an ascending triangle; the 100% Fib extension target near 2728.75 was achieved on Thursday; the 161.8% Fib extension target is near 2747.50
Broke above a symmetrical triangle / pennant at early Asian session; the 100% extension triangle break target is near 2733.00 and 161.8% extension target is near 2737.75; the Flag/pennant break targets are near 2742.00 and 2755.00
RSI-14 crossed above 80 in early trading on Tuesday; fell below 65 at 4:30 PM and is hovering around it since then
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been gradually moving up in steps since 4:00 PM on December 29; expanding and moving up during NYSE session but contracting and moving sideways at other times
The band contracted near the end of NYSE session on Thursday with Bandwidth falling below 0.010 by Asian session open; the BW rose above 0.10 at the start of European session and the Band started to expand; since 6:30 AM the lower limit of the band is also sloping up
MFI-14 reached 98.67 at 5:00 AM; it declined to 50 and then again crossed above 90
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K reached 0 at 1:45 AM then rose to 100 by 2:45 AM; it started to decline at 6:30 AM, making bearish divergence, and fell below 50 at 7:45 AM with price moving sideways from hugging the upper limit of the BB
Broke above an ascending triangle Thursday morning; the 261.8% Fib extension target near 2732.00 was achieved during European session
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday January 4. Major indices made all time highs. Late in the day indices declined. NASDAQ Composite closed below the open. Dow Jones Transportation Average made a doji near the middle of day’s range and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index made doji near the lows. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 closed in the lower half of day’s range.
