S&P Futures are higher; moving lower since 6:30 PM on January 7;
Odds are for a sideways to down – watch for break below 2744.25 for change of fortunes
No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher – Tokyo was closed
European markets are mostly up – U.K. and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Cotton
Gold
Silver
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.473% down from January 5 close of 2.476%;
30-years is at 2.797% down from 2.811%
2-years yield is at 1.948% down from 1.952%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.525 up from 0.524
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2731.81, 2722.20 and 2714.37
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2748.43, 2753.70 and 2763.96
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2744.25, the high of 5.30 AM and break below 2738.50, the low of 3:30 PM on January 5
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2741.25 and the index closed at 2743.15 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2742.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50; Dow by -10.00; and NASDAQ by -8.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-to-Side
30-Min: Side-to-Down
15-Min: Side-to-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 5 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +2.6%, which is the largest change since the week closing on November 11 2016, almost thirteen months ago
Last week’s pivot point 2722.99; R1=2763.61, R2=2784.08; S1=2702.52, S2=2661.90; R1/R2/R3 were breached; last all 3 resistance levels were breached was the week closing on December 1 and following week ne pivot levels were breached
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A green real bodied candle that gapped up at the open and did not fill the gap; almost no upper and lower shadow
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19; RSI is at 78.31
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2738.17; R1=2748.43, R2=2753.70; S1=2732.90; S2=2722.64; R1/R2/R3 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; drifting down since 6:00 PM on Sunday
Broke above a horizontal channel on January 3; the 161.8% Fib extension target near 2729.50 was achieved; the 261.8% extension target near 2747.75 was achieved at 6:00 PM on January 7
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke above an ascending triangle on January 4; the 100% Fib extension target near 2728.75 was achieved; the 161.8% Fib extension target ear 2747.50 was achieved
Broke above a symmetrical triangle / pennant at early Asian session; the 100% extension triangle break target is near 2733.00 and 161.8% extension target is near 2737.75; the Flag/pennant break targets are near 2742.00 and 2755.00
RSI-14 crossed above 80 in early trading on Tuesday; fell below 65 at 4:30 PM and is hovering around it since then
At/below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down 6:00 PM on January 7
The band contracted during the Asian session and started to expand at 3:15 ANM with price hugging the lower limit
MFI-14 dropped below 50 at 3:00 AM and the bounced up to it and fell below 20 by 7:45 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K dropped below at 7:00 PM on Sunday and hasn’t been able to reach it again; it fell below 20 at 6:45 for third time after two tries to reach 70
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday January 5. Major indices made all time highs. Most also closed near the top. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed near the middle of the day’s range.
For the week, major indices made relatively large green real body candles. Most also had almost no upper and lower shadows. DJT made relatively larger upper shadow. For the week, only two S&P sectors – Utility and Real Estate – were down.
