Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 2:00 PM on January 9
- Below a down trend line from the highs on 30-min chart; emerging head-&-shoulder pattern
- Emerging up-sloping bear flag on 15-min chart
- Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2749.25 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- Import Prices (0.1% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed up
- European markets are mixed – Germany, France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down; U.K., Spain and Italy are up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
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- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Cotton
- Cocoa
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.594% up from January 9 close of 2.546%;
- 30-years is at 2.944% up from 2.887%
- 2-years yield is at 1.981% up from 1.977%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.613 up from 0.569
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2745.45, 2737.60 and 2727.92
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2759..03, 2764.04 and 2768.95
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2745.00, the low of 3:30 AM and break below 2737.25, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2753.00 and the index closed at 2751.29 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2752.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.50; Dow by -89.00; and NASDAQ by -35.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up-to-Side
- 30-Min: Side-to-Down
- 15-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on January 5 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +2.6%, which is the largest change since the week closing on November 11 2016, almost thirteen months ago
- Last week’s pivot point 2722.99; R1=2763.61, R2=2784.08; S1=2702.52, S2=2661.90; R1/R2/R3 were breached; last all 3 resistance levels were breached was the week closing on December 1 and following week ne pivot levels were breached
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
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Daily
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- A doji candle with small upper shadow and smaller lower shadow
- RSI-14 divergence is nullifying as RSI is almost at the previous high
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2752.6; R1=2757.67, R2=2764.04; S1=2746.39; S2=2741.48; R1/R2 were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; drifting down since 12:00 PM on January 9; at the previous swing low
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
- Below 20-bar EMA, at 50-bar EMA
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving down since 2:00 PM on January 9;
- Emerging head-&-shoulder pattern; at the neck near 2736.75
- RSI-14 declined from a high of 73.3 at 2:00 PM on January 9 to a low of 24.14 at 5:30 AM; it has bounced above 40
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down 3:00 PM on January 9
- The band contracted during the Asian session and started to expand at 2:15 AM; price was hugging the lower band till 7:00 AM
- An up-sloping flag is emerging since 5:45 AM; a break below will also trigger the Head-&-Shoulder pattern mentioned under 30-min chart
- MFI-14 declined to 7.64 at 3:00 AM it bounced up but could not reach 50; is oscillating between 40 and 20 since then
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declined to 0 at 5:30 AM; since then it is rising in a zigzag and crossed above 8-0 at 8:15 AM
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Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday January 9. Market opened higher and made all time highs by mid-day. then they declined and closed near the lows. Russell 2000 was down for the day.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industrials
- Finance
- Heath Care
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- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
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