S&P Futures are higher; moving up after sharp decline at 8:30 AM to negative
Below a down trend line from the high
Odds are for an up to sideway day – watch for break above 2774.50 and break below 2766.75 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
CPI (0.1% vs. 0.1% est.) and Core CPI (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Retail Sales (0.4% vs. 0.5% est.) and Core Retail Sales (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly up – Tokyo was down
European markets are mostly up – Germany is down
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
Dollar index
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Cotton
Crude Oil
Copper
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.581% up from January 11 close of 2.531%;
30-years is at 2.893% up from 2.865%
2-years yield is at 2.014% up from 1.968%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.567 up from 0.563
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2761.28, 2752.78, and 2743.31
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2772.49, 2777.41 and 2787.27
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2774.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2766.75, the low of 7:00 PM on January 11
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2768.25 and the index closed at 2767.50 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2769.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.50; Dow up by +68.00; and NASDAQ down by -22.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 5 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +2.6%, which is the largest change since the week closing on November 11 2016, almost thirteen months ago
Last week’s pivot point 2722.99; R1=2763.61, R2=2784.08; S1=2702.52, S2=2661.90; R1/R2/R3 were breached; last all 3 resistance levels were breached was the week closing on December 1 and following week ne pivot levels were breached
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A relatively large green candle with almost no lower and upper shadows
RSI-14 divergence is nullified as RSI made a new high
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2762.63; R1=2772.49, R2=2777.41; S1=2757.71; S2=2747.85; R1/R2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; regaining that trend after drifting down from 12:00 PM on January 9 to 4:00 AM January 10; bounced off EMA10 of EMA50
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up since 5:30 AM on January 10; sharp decline at 8:30 AM following CPI and Retails Sales economic report
RSI-14 made a bearish divergence around 80 and fell below 50 at 8:30 AM
Below 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up 10:45 AM on January 10
The band contracted during Asian session and expanded during the European session; it started to contract at 8:00 AM with BW dipping to 0.11 before the sharp decline following the news release
MFI-14 declining since :00 AM from a high of 89.1; a bounce found resistance at 80; near 20
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K also declined from 100 at 4:00 AM to a low 0 at 7:30 AM; a bounce is turning down from 42.85
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Thursday January 11. Indices made all time highs with relative large gain for the day. Most also made green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows.
