S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 2:30 PM on January 16
Emerging up-sloping flag; a break below will be bearish
Odds are for an up day but most likely down from current levels – watch for break below 2782.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Capacity Utilization (77.9% vs. 77.3% est.) at 9:15 AM
Industrial Production (0.9% vs. 0.4% est.) at 9:15 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Mumbai were up; Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul were down
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K. and Spain are down; France, Italy, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Copper
Sugar
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.559% up from January 16 close of 2.544%;
30-years is at 2.833% up from 2.836%
2-years yield is at 2.035% up from 2.018%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.524 down from 0.526
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2768.64, 2761.28 and 2752.78
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2781.99, 2796.80 and 2807.54
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2792.75, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 2787.00, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2777.75 and the index closed at 2776.42 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2782.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.50; Dow up by +101.00; and NASDAQ up by +20.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Down-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 12 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2770.05; R1=2804.04, R2=2821.84; S1=2752.25, S2=2718.26; R1/R2 were breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A relatively large red candle that gapped up at the open but then made a dark cloud cover candle with small, relative to the real body, upper and lower
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2784.20; R1=2799.76, R2=2823.10; S1=2760.86; S2=2745.30; R1/R2/S1 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; decline from 8:00 AM on January 16 found a support at the EMA50 at 2:00 PM; it rising since then
RSI-9 is showing divergence – 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; RSI fell below 40 now nearing 65
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
At/above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up since 2:30 PM on January 16, after a sharp drop during the day, in a narrow up-sloping channel; retraced to 61.8% Fib level of the decline; a break below will be bearish
RSI-14 dropped to 22 at 2:30 PM and is rising since then; nearing 65; a break above may signal a change in trend
Above 20-bar EMA, which is at EMA10 of EMA50
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping up since NYSE close on Tuesday;
The band contracted after NYSE session and during most of Asian session; it started to expand at 2:45 AM and then again started to contract at 8:00 AM
MFI-14 has mostly stayed above 50 since 9:00 PM on Tuesday
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declined above 90 at 8:00 and bottomed at 30 at 8:15 AM; it is rising since
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices declined on Tuesday January 16. Market gapped at the open and made day’s high in first half-hour of trading. Then they mostly declined for most of the day. Most indices made dark-cloud cover candle formation. Russell 2000 and Dow Transportation Average made bearish engulfing pattern. Wednesday’s trading will be critical whether Tuesday turns out to be a reversal day or not.
