S&P Futures are down; moving down in a down-sloping flag sine 3:00 PM on Wednesday
At the lower bound of a horizontal channel on 6-Minute timeframe
Odds are a sideways day with an up bias – watch for break above 2806.25 and below 2800.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Housing Starts (1.19M vs. 1.28M est.) at 8:30 AM
Building Permits (1.30M vs. 1.29M) at 8:30 AM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.2 vs. 24.9 est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims (220K vs. 250K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai and Seoul were up; Tokyo and Sydney were down
European markets are mixed – U.K., France and Spain are down; Germany, Italy, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Copper
Cotton
Cocoa
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.616 up from January 16 close of 2.578%;
30-years is at 2.896% up from 2.848%
2-years yield is at 2.048% up from 2.044%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.568 up from 0.534
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2784.95, 2768.64 and 2761.28
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2813.61, 2824.65 and 2842.27
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2807.50, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2800.25, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2804.50 and the index closed at 2802.56 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2803.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -3.75; Dow up by +6.00; and NASDAQ down by -19.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Up-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 12 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2770.05; R1=2804.04, R2=2821.84; S1=2752.25, S2=2718.26; R1/R2 were breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A relatively large green candle that opened at the middle of Tuesday’ real body and then closed near its high; small upper and lower shadow; a break above Wednesday’s high will be bullish
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2795.99; R1=2813.61, R2=2824.65; S1=2784.95; S2=2767.33; R1 was breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; decline from 8:00 AM on January 16 bounced off a support at the EMA50 near 2775.00; moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Wednesday near 2805.50
Emerging Cup-with-Handle pattern; more about in in 30-min TF
RSI-9 is showing divergence – 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; RSI fell below 40; now hovering around 65
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Mostly moving sideways since 3:00 PM on January 17 near all time high of 2808.50;
Emerging handle of a cup-with-handle formation since 9:30 AM on January 16; a break above 2808.50 will be quit bullish
A break below an up-sloping flag on Wednesday fizzled;
RSI-14 rose to 74.14 at 2:30 PM on Wednesday; it declined to just above 40 and is now hovering around 50
At flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping sideways since 7:30 PM on Wednesday
The band contracted during early Asian session the expanded only marginally
A down-sloping flag is emerging; a break above 2806.00 will be bullish
MFI-14 rose from a low of 27.13 at 3:30 AM to 78.71 at 7:00 AM; it is lower now
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K rose to 100 at 6:30 AM and then touched 19.04 at 7:45 AM; now rising and %K is above %D
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday January 17 recovering all losses from Tuesday’s high. Many indices opened up at the middle of Tuesday’s real body and then closed either above or near its high. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 500 Total Market index made a green harami candle Dow Jones Transportation Average made a doji near the close of Tuesday with small upper and lower shadow.
