S&P Futures are up with increased volatility; rose from 2791.75 to 2806.00 then declined to 2796.00
30-min 8:30 AM candle made a hammer like reversal candle
Odds are an up day but with increase volatility with good chance for a down day – watch for break below 2796.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 97.0) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher – Sydney was down
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
USD/CAD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Copper
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.616 up from January 18 close of 2.611%;
30-years is at 2.896% up from 2.88%
2-years yield is at 2.048% up from 2.044%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.568 up from 0.534
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2792.56, 2768.64 and 2761.28
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2805.83, 2812.08 and 2818.32
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2804.00, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2796.00, the low of 8:45 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2800.25 and the index closed at 2798.03 – a spread of about +2.25 points; futures closed at 2796.25 for the day; the fair value is +3.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.75; Dow up by +17.00; and NASDAQ up by +26.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-to-Side
30-Min: Side-to-Down
15-Min: Down-to-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 12 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2770.05; R1=2804.04, R2=2821.84; S1=2752.25, S2=2718.26; R1/R2 were breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A relatively small red harami with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow; showing indecision
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2798.81; R1=2805.05, R2=2812.08; S1=2791.78; S2=2785.54; No levels were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Futures are moving higher since 10:00 PM last night after falling to 2791.75 from 2809.50
Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; decline from 8:00 AM on January 16 bounced off a support at the EMA50 twice on January 16 and 17
Emerging Cup-with-Handle pattern did not break to the upside
RSI-9 diverged – 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; RSI fell below 40 on January 16 and the bounce was turned back just above 65; it is toggling between 40 and 65, showing neither the up bias or the down bias is dominant
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
At/above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Rose from a low of 2791.75 at 10:30 PM last night near a support zone that was once broken to the downtrend line near 2805.75 at 6:30 AM, which was also near the resistance created by the uptrend line that was broken at the NYSE close yesterday; it looks bearish, at least for the short term; a break below 2791.75 will continue the downtrend
RSI-14 continued to decline from 74.14 at 2:30 PM on January 17 to just below 40 at 10:30 PM last night; it rose to just above 65 but then again fell below 50; neither the up bias or down bias is dominant
Below 20-bar EMA but at EMA10 of EMA50
8:30 AM made spinning top that is more like a hammer with short upper shadow and longer lower shadow; break above 2801.75 would signal a short term reversal
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloped down from 10:00 PM on January 17 to 3:00 AM; then it expanded and sloped up
The band contracted for short time from 2:00 AM to 3:15 AM; price hugged upper band from 2:30 AM to 5:15 AM; then it moved sideways and they declined to hug the lower band
MFI-14 falling from the 96.22 to below 50
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bearish divergence and 5:45 AM and the price declined from 2806.00 to 2799.25 at 8:15 AM; %K rising from 3.57 and crossed above %D at 8:30;
8:30 AM made shooting star candle and 8:45 AM made a bullish engulfing
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices declined on Thursday January 18. Dow Jones Transportation Average was positive for the day. Most also made harami candle. NASDAQ Composite made a harami doji. The day’s price action indicated indecision. Market started the day with a decline then a rise in the middle of the day before falling during the final hour of trading.
