Morning Notes – Tuesday January 23, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down following big gain that took futures to 2842.00 at 2:30 AM
  • Increased range, to downside, since 5:30 AM on 15-minute TF
  • Odds are a sideways day, with choppy trading – watch for break above 2840.00 and below 2822.75 for change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly higher – France and Italy are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.665% up from January 19 close of 2.637%;
    • 30-years closed at 2.928% up from 2.912%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.062% up  from 2.053%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.603 up from 0.584

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2821.22, 2815.90 and 2792.56
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2841.29, 2849.62 and 2866.20
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2840.00, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2822.75, the low of 2:00 PM on Monday

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2835.00 and the index closed at 2832.97 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2835.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.50; Dow up by +8.00; and NASDAQ up by +5.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on January 19 was a small body green candle, a hammer with almost no upper shadow but large lower shadow; the  weekly change was a healthy +0.9% but lower than previous two weeks’ +.26% and +1.6%
  • Last week’s pivot point 2796.42; R1=2824.021 R2=2838.11; S1=2782.52, S2=2754.73; R1 was breached;
  • An up week;  fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke above an Ascending triangle at 8:00 AM on January 22; Low=2769.25, High=2808.50; 61.% extension target near 2832.75 is achieved; 100% extension is near 2847.75
  • RSI-9 divergence could still happen; at 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; at 2:00 AM on January 23, the price made 2842.00 and RSI was at 90.04
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • No clear chart pattern emerging at the moment
  • Last pattern bullish ABCD or symmetric triangle broke to the upside on January 22; 161.8% extension target near 2838.50 is achieved; 261.8% extension target is near 2867.50
  • RSI-14 has fallen below 40 from near 80 but up bias, using RAI, still exists
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above  EMA10 of EMA50
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloped sideways from 9:45 PM on Monday
  • The band contracted from 9:00 PM to 5:45 AM; its is now expanding with upper and lower bands moving in opposite direction and price hugging the lower band
  • MFI-14 s declining 2:45 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): Trending down since 00:15 AM following a bearish divergence; %K made double bottom at 0
  • Made a morning star pattern between 6:15 and 6:45 AM; still below mid-point of the BB

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices advanced on Monday January 22 with relatively large gains and made all time highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a morning star pattern albeit, after a healthy rally. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite seem to be break out, also after a long rally. So are the broader indices, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Dow Jones Transportation has yet to a make a new high but Russell 2000 followed through on the large, +1.3%, gain on Friday January 19.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Finance
  6. Utility
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  1. Industrials (unch.)