S&P Futures are down following big gain that took futures to 2842.00 at 2:30 AM
Increased range, to downside, since 5:30 AM on 15-minute TF
Odds are a sideways day, with choppy trading – watch for break above 2840.00 and below 2822.75 for change of fortunes
No Key economic data due
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher
European markets are mostly higher – France and Italy are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Sugar
Cocoa
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 2.665% up from January 19 close of 2.637%;
30-years closed at 2.928% up from 2.912%
2-years yield is at 2.062% up from 2.053%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.603 up from 0.584
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2821.22, 2815.90 and 2792.56
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2841.29, 2849.62 and 2866.20
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2840.00, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2822.75, the low of 2:00 PM on Monday
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2835.00 and the index closed at 2832.97 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2835.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.50; Dow up by +8.00; and NASDAQ up by +5.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up-Side
6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 19 was a small body green candle, a hammer with almost no upper shadow but large lower shadow; the weekly change was a healthy +0.9% but lower than previous two weeks’ +.26% and +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2796.42; R1=2824.021 R2=2838.11; S1=2782.52, S2=2754.73; R1 was breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
Confirmed Uptrend
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke above an Ascending triangle at 8:00 AM on January 22; Low=2769.25, High=2808.50; 61.% extension target near 2832.75 is achieved; 100% extension is near 2847.75
RSI-9 divergence could still happen; at 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; at 2:00 AM on January 23, the price made 2842.00 and RSI was at 90.04
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
No clear chart pattern emerging at the moment
Last pattern bullish ABCD or symmetric triangle broke to the upside on January 22; 161.8% extension target near 2838.50 is achieved; 261.8% extension target is near 2867.50
RSI-14 has fallen below 40 from near 80 but up bias, using RAI, still exists
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloped sideways from 9:45 PM on Monday
The band contracted from 9:00 PM to 5:45 AM; its is now expanding with upper and lower bands moving in opposite direction and price hugging the lower band
MFI-14 s declining 2:45 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): Trending down since 00:15 AM following a bearish divergence; %K made double bottom at 0
Made a morning star pattern between 6:15 and 6:45 AM; still below mid-point of the BB
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Monday January 22 with relatively large gains and made all time highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a morning star pattern albeit, after a healthy rally. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite seem to be break out, also after a long rally. So are the broader indices, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Dow Jones Transportation has yet to a make a new high but Russell 2000 followed through on the large, +1.3%, gain on Friday January 19.
