A symmetrical triangle broke to the upside on 6-minute charts; the 61.8% extension near 2847.50 is achieved
Odds are an up day – watch for break below 2836.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (233K vs. 23K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Seoul was up
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Palladium
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 2.654% up from January 23 close of 2.624%;
30-years closed at 2.937% up from 2.902%
2-years yield is at 2.076% up from 2.060%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.574 up from 0.564
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2824.81, 2821.22 and 2815.90
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2843.84, 2852.97 and 2855.60
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2851.50, the high of 11:00 AM on January 24 and break below 2836.25, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2839.25 and the index closed at 2837.54 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2841.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.25; Dow by +102.00; and NASDAQ by +44.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 19 was a small body green candle, a hammer with almost no upper shadow but large lower shadow; the weekly change was a healthy +0.9% but lower than previous two weeks’ +.26% and +1.6%
Last week’s pivot point 2796.42; R1=2824.021 R2=2838.11; S1=2782.52, S2=2754.73; R1 was breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
Confirmed Uptrend
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke above an Ascending triangle at 8:00 AM on January 22; Low=2769.25, High=2808.50; 100% extension near 2847.75 is achieved in early morning; 161.8% extension target is near 2872.00
RSI-9 divergence could still happen; at 6:00 PM on January 14 the price made a high of 2787.50 and RSI was 90.39; at 4:00 AM on January 16, the price made a high of 2803.50 but the RSI was at 85.63; at 2:00 AM on January 23, the price made 2842.00 and RSI was at 90.04;
RSI approaching a down trend line; break above would be bullish for price to follow
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; under pressure
Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
The symmetrical triangle formed on January 23 petered out after reaching 2855.25 between 61.8% and 100% extension targets
Last pattern bullish ABCD or symmetric triangle broke to the upside on January 22; 161.8% extension target near 2838.50 is achieved; 261.8% extension target is near 2867.50
RSI-14 twice bounced off 50 since 1:00 PM on January 24; RSI above 65
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping sideways since 10:00 AM on January 22
The band contracted during most of the Asian session; expansion since 3:15 AM with price hugging the upper band
MFI-14 is above 80
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K stayed above 80 from 3:15 AM to 7:15 AM; it is just near 65
Bias: Up
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Wednesday January 24. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite were up by +0.2%. The market gapped up at the open and then made all time highs. Indices then gave that up and went down by almost the similar margin. Near the end they recovered a part of the losses. A break below Wednesday’s low will be quite bearish and break above the high will be quite bullish.
