Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; mostly moving sideways since 2:30 AM
- Odds are for a sideways day but with elevated levels of volatility – watch for break above 2648.75 and break below 2636.25 for a change of fortunes
- No Key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Tokyo was down; Mumbai was closed
- European markets are mostly down – U.K. is up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
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- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Cocoa
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- Crude Oil
- Silver
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.835%, down from February 12 close of 2.857%;
- 30-years is at 3.127%, down from 3.137%
- 2-years yield is at 2.094%, up from 2.081%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.741 down from 0.776
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2622.45, 2597.43 and 2569.23
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2672.61, 2711.34 and 2727.67
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2648.75, the high of 1:30 AM and break below 2636.25, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2654.00 and the index closed at 2656.00 – a spread of about -2.00 points; futures closed at 2655.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -12.50; Dow by -144.00; and NASDAQ by -41.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 9 was a large red bodies candle with -5.2% decline following -3.9% decline with a bearish engulfing candle
- Last week’s pivot point=2638.54, R1=2744.40, R2=2869.24; S1=2513.70, S2=2407.84; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
- A down week; second in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
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Daily
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- A follow through after the reversal day on Friday; last two days’ green real bodies are, still, within the large red body of February 8
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June 2016 lows is near 2534.86 and the index low on Friday 2532.69
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA but above 200-day SMA
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounced off the lows of 2530.25 at 12:00 PM on February 9, testing the low of 2529.00 on February 5; at the resistance of EMA10 of EMA50 at 2726.75;
- RSI-9 rising from the lows of 19.35 at 2:00 PM on February 8; declining after crossing 65
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
- At/above 20-bar EMA but is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Potential double bottom or a horizontal channel emerging – two lows of 2529.00 at 11:30 PM on February 5 and 2530.25 at 1:30 PM on February 9 with an intermediate high of 2726.75 at 11:00 AM on February 7; nearing the middle of the channel
- RSI is mostly between 65 and 40 3:00 PM on February 9
- At 20-bar EMA which is at 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:15 PM on February 11
- The band mostly narrow since 9:30 PM on February 12
- RSI is mostly between 50 and 40 since 10:45 PM on February 12
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turning down from 97.82 at 7:30 AM
- Bias: Side
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday February 12 following a reversal day on Friday. The volume, however, was lower. It was lowest since February 2 or last seven days.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
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