Morning Notes – Thursday February 15, 2018

• Confirmed Uptrend
• December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
• Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%

• The week ending on February 9 was a large red bodies candle with -5.2% decline following -3.9% decline with a bearish engulfing candle
• Last week’s pivot point=2638.54, R1=2744.40, R2=2869.24; S1=2513.70, S2=2407.84; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
• A down week; second in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
• Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
  • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
  • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
  • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
• Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
  • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
  • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
  • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
• Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
• Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
• Uptrend under pressure

Daily

• Another green body with almost no upper and lower shadows; closed above the large red body of February 8; nearing the resistance of 2727.67, the high reached on February 7 bounce
• The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June 2016 lows is near 2534.86 and the index low on Friday 2532.69
• Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
• Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
• Below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA but above 200-day SMA

• Bounced off the lows of 2530.25 at 12:00 PM on February 9, testing the low of 2529.00 on February 5; broke above the resistance of EMA10 of EMA50 at 2726.75; nearing a resistance high
• RSI-9 in an uptrend since 2:00 PM on February 8; staying above 40 since 2:00 Pm on February 9; around 75 since 2:00 PM on February 14
• Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
• Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
• Bias: Down-Side

• Above an uptrend line since 1:30 PM on February 9
• Potential double bottom or a horizontal channel emerging – two lows of 2529.00 at 11:30 PM on February 5 and 2530.25 at 1:30 PM on February 9 with an intermediate high of 2726.75 at 11:00 AM on February 7; nearing the upper limit
• RSI is mostly above 50 since 10:00 AM on February 14; coming down from above 75 reached during European session
• At 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
• Bias: Up

• Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving upward since 1:30 PM on February 14
• The band contracted for sometime during Asian session; again expanding since 3:00 AM
• 7:15 PM on February 13; sudden expansion following CPI news; price hugging the lower band
• RSI mostly moved alone 65 line from 12:45 PM on February 14 to 5:45 AM; it has come off it a bit and is bouncing off above 40
• The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned up from 4.44 at 7:30 AM and is now nearing 80
• Bias: Up

1. Consumer Discretionary
2. Energy
3. Materials
4. Industrials
5. Finance
6. Technology
7. Heath Care
8. Telecom

1. Consumer Staples
2. Utility
3. Real Estate