Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 3:30 AM
- Broke below a symmetrical triangle, bearish sign, on 30-minute chart at 4:00 AM
- Odds are for a down day with greater volatility – watch for break above 2668.00 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment ( est. 99.4) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were down – Mumbai was closed
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
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- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.804% on March 1 down from February 28 close of 2.908%;
- 30-years closed at 3.088%, down from 3.127%
- 2-years yield is at 2.230%, up from 2.210%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.594 down from 0.618
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.65, 2648.87 and 2637.08
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2689.00, 2697.77 and 2721.72
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2668.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2652.75, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2676.00 and the index closed at 2677.67 – a spread of about -1.75 points; futures closed at 2678.25 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -22.50; Dow by -277.00; and NASDAQ by -87.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 23 was a small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow following a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance, which had followed a -5.2% decline previous week
- Last week’s pivot point=2730.94, R1=2764.12, R2=2780.93; S1=2714.13, S2=2680.95; no pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; two in a row, third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
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Daily
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- A large red candle with small upper and lower shadows
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
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2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a support on March 1; a small bounce was turned back at the broken-support-turned-resistance
- RSI-9 mostly fluctuating between 25 and 40 since 12:00 PM on February 28
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
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30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a symmetrical triangle or a pennant at 4:00 AM; 00% extension target near 2653.00 is achieved
- RSI below a downtrend line since February 26; mostly below 50 since 10:30 AM on February 2
- Below 20-bar EMA which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
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15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with a down bias since 7:30 PM on Thursday
- The band contracted from 7:30 PM to 3:45 AM and is expanding since then
- RSI is mostly between 50and 25 since 12:00 PM on Thursday
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is making a bullish divergence at 8:00 AM
- Bias: Down-Side
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices declined on Thursday March 1 and have broken below the lows of the congestion area made between February 15 and February 23.
Up |
Down |
- Utility
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- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
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