Broke below a symmetrical triangle, bearish sign, on 30-minute chart at 4:00 AM
Odds are for a down day with greater volatility – watch for break above 2668.00 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data:
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment ( est. 99.4) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were down – Mumbai was closed
European markets are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Cotton
Crude Oil
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 2.804% on March 1 down from February 28 close of 2.908%;
30-years closed at 3.088%, down from 3.127%
2-years yield is at 2.230%, up from 2.210%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.594 down from 0.618
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.65, 2648.87 and 2637.08
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2689.00, 2697.77 and 2721.72
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2668.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2652.75, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2676.00 and the index closed at 2677.67 – a spread of about -1.75 points; futures closed at 2678.25 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -22.50; Dow by -277.00; and NASDAQ by -87.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on February 23 was a small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow following a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance, which had followed a -5.2% decline previous week
Last week’s pivot point=2730.94, R1=2764.12, R2=2780.93; S1=2714.13, S2=2680.95; no pivot levels were breached;
An up week; two in a row, third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A large red candle with small upper and lower shadows
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke below a support on March 1; a small bounce was turned back at the broken-support-turned-resistance
RSI-9 mostly fluctuating between 25 and 40 since 12:00 PM on February 28
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below a symmetrical triangle or a pennant at 4:00 AM; 00% extension target near 2653.00 is achieved
RSI below a downtrend line since February 26; mostly below 50 since 10:30 AM on February 2
Below 20-bar EMA which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with a down bias since 7:30 PM on Thursday
The band contracted from 7:30 PM to 3:45 AM and is expanding since then
RSI is mostly between 50and 25 since 12:00 PM on Thursday
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is making a bullish divergence at 8:00 AM
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices declined on Thursday March 1 and have broken below the lows of the congestion area made between February 15 and February 23.
