Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; mostly moving sideways since 3:00 PM on Monday
- Forming a down-sloping flag on 6-minute chart; trying to break to the upside
- Odds are for an up to sideways move day with great volatility – watch for break above 2685.75 and break below 2672.50 for change of fortunes
- No Key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Mumbai was down
- European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.8850% up from March 5 close of 2.881%;
- 30-years is at 3.146%, down from 3.151%
- 2-years yield is at 2.250%, up from 2.246%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.635 unchanged
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2709.42, 2675.75 and 2664.83
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2730.89, 2738.02 and 2754.43
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2734.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2725.75, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2721.25 and the index closed at 2720.94 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2718.50 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.50; Dow by +107.00; and NASDAQ by +34.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Side-Up
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 2 was a large bearish engulfing candles with large upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2709.24, R1=2771.16, R2=2812.07; S1=2629.33, S2=2567.41; S1/S2/S3/R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first after two up weeks, third in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large green candle that closed above Thursday’s large red candle’s open;
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- At 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke above a downtrend line from the high on February 27;
- RSI-9 rising since a low of 25.86 at 8:00 AM on March 2; above 65
- At 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke above an irregular inverse head-&-shoulder pattern; the 100% extension target is near 2743.00, which is about 16 point away
- RSI is hovering above 65 since 10:30 AM on March 5
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is, mostly, moving sideway since 4:00 PM on March 5
- The band contracted during Asian and started to expand a from 6:00 AM
- RSI is mostly between 50 and 75 since 10:15 AM on March 5
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is declining after reaching 100 at 6:00 AM; now at 20
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Monday March 5, following through of Friday’s advance, which was a thrusting candlestick pattern for most. The two day move was more than the piercing candle’s thrust into a large red candle for Thursday. The volume was lower than that on Friday, which in turn was lower than on Thursday.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
|
Major U.S. indices advanced on Monday March 5, following through of Friday’s advance, which was a thrusting candlestick pattern for most. The two day move was more than the piercing candle’s thrust into a large red candle for Thursday. The volume was lower than that on Friday, which in turn was lower than on Thursday.
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