Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 7:30 PM on March 6 within an up-sloping flag- At the upper limit of an ascending triangle on 30-Min chart
- Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break above 2734.50 and break below 22720.25 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Unemployment Claims (231K vs. 220K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were up
- European markets are mostly higher – Germany is down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Silver
- Palladium
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- Gold
- Copper
- Platinum
- Coffee
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.883% on March 7, up from March 6 close of 2.877%;
- 30-years is at 3.152%, up from 3.136%
- 2-years yield is at 2.258%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.633, up from 0.619
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2713.73, 2701.74 and 2675.75
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2730.89, 2738.02 and 2754.43
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2734.50, the high at 6:30 AM on March 6 and break below 2720.75, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2726.00 and the index closed at 2726.80 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 2723.25 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.25; Dow by +19.00; and NASDAQ by +33.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Side-Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 2 was a large bearish engulfing candles with large upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2709.24, R1=2771.16, R2=2812.07; S1=2629.33, S2=2567.41; S1/S2/S3/R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first after two up weeks, third in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A relatively large green candle with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow; a break above Tuesday high of 2732.08 will be bullish
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Rising since making a low of 2681.25 at 6:00 PM on March 6; moving sideways since 4:00 PM on March 7
- RSI-9 rising since making a low of 30.24 at 6:00 PM on March 6; moving around 65 since 2:00 PM on March 7
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- At the upper limit of an ascending triangle; break above 275.00 will have a target near 2780.00
- RSI is mostly above 50 since 3:00 AM on March 7
- Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 11:45 PM on March 6
- The band contracted from 8:00 PM to 6:30 AM and is expanding now
- RSI is above 40 since 1:45 AM on March 7 and is above 65 at the moment
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K reached 100 at 6:30 AM and is declining; formed a bearish divergence at 7:30 AM
- Bias: Up
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices were mixed on Wednesday March 7.S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed down. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Volume was higher for most indices from Tuesday. Volume for DJT was lower.
The market opened with a sharp gap down from previous day. It then rose but fou8rn resistance at the upper limit of the gap in late morning. After testing the lows by mid-day, the market turned around and closed near the highs for the day. The day’s price action points for a turn-around Russell 2000 has broken above the highs reached on February 27.
| Up |
Down |
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Utility
|
Major U.S. indices were mixed on Wednesday March 7.S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed down. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Volume was higher for most indices from Tuesday. Volume for DJT was lower.
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