Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moved sideways from 3:30 PM to 8:30 AM; jumped higher on P report- Broken above an ascending triangle on 30-Min chart with target near 2789.00
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2733.75 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Non Farm Payroll Change (313K vs. 205K est.) at 8:30 AM
- Average Hourly Earnings (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Rate (4.1% vs. 4.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Mumbai was down
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K, France and Italy are down; Spain, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Copper
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.866% on March 8, up from March 7 close of 2.883%;
- 30-years is at 3.152%, up from 3.136%
- 2-years yield is at 2.283%, up from 2.242%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.592, down from 0.624
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2722.65, 2713.73 and 2701.74
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2740.45, 2754.43 and 2789.15
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2757.00, the high at 8:36 AM and break below 2732.25, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2739.00 and the index closed at 2738.97 – a spread of about -0.0 points; futures closed at 2739.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +18.00; Dow by +167.00; and NASDAQ by +69.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 2 was a large bearish engulfing candles with large upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2709.24, R1=2771.16, R2=2812.07; S1=2629.33, S2=2567.41; S1/S2/S3/R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first after two up weeks, third in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A green small body candle that gapped at the open and with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow;
- A symmetrical triangle or pennant is emerging
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Rising since making a low of 2681.25 at 6:00 PM on March 6; moving sideways since 4:00 PM on March 7; above an uptrend line; sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI-9 rising since making a low of 30.24 at 6:00 PM on March 6; moving between 65 and 75 since 2:00 PM on March 8
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broken above an ascending triangle; target near 2789.00; moving sideways since 8:30 PM on Thursday
- RSI is mostly above 50 since 3:00 AM on March 7
- Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways9:30 PM on Thursday
- The band contracted since 1:30 AM
- RSI is mostly above 50 since 1:45 AM on March 7
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K bouncing off from 19 and is near 50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday March 8. Russell 2000 was down. The volume was mixed from previous day.
Major indices are forming symmetrical triangle or pennant. NASDAQ Composite is at the upper limit, Russell 2000 has broken above the triangle.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
- Energy
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday March 8. Russell 2000 was down. The volume was mixed from previous day.
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