S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 11:30 PM on Monday; jumped up following CPI report
Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break above 2802.50 and below 2792.00 for change of fortunes
Key economic data:
CPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30
Core CPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mixed Shanghai, Sydney and Mumbai were down; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul were up
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down; France, Spain and Italy are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Crude Oil
Sugar
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.846% down from March 12 close of 2.870%;
30-years is at 3.112%, down from 3.129%
2-years yield is at 2.246%, down from 2.262%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.600, down from 0.608
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2779.26, 2751.54 and 2728.05
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2796.98, 2808.92 and 2839.26
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2802.25, the high at 9:30 AM on Monday and break below 2792.00, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2788.00 and the index closed at 2783.02 – a spread of about +5.00 points; futures closed at 2789.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.25; Dow by +76.00; and NASDAQ by +27.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A small red body candle that mostly stayed near Friday’s close
Breaking above a symmetrical triangle or pennant
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Rising since making a low of 2681.25 at 6:00 PM on March 6; pulling back since 2:00 AM on March 12 from 2805.00, which is just above a resistance level; above an uptrend line; sequence of higher highs and higher lows
RSI-9 rising since making a low of 30.24 at 6:00 PM on March 6; moved between 65 and 75 from 2:00 PM on March 8; dipped below 65 and making a rounding bottom just above 50; uptrend is persisting
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on March 9
Broke above an ascending triangle and achieved 100% extension target near 2789.00;
RSI bouncing off from 33.38 at 11:00 AM on March 12; just above 65; signs for uptrend
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 6:00 PM on March 11
The band is mostly narrow since midnight on March 12
RSI is trending up since 11:15 on March 12 and is above 40;
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K bouncing off 18.75 at 8:15 AM
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday March 12. The volume was lower than on Friday. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed down and NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. The day’s price action was in a narrow range. Major indices are forming symmetrical triangles. Except DJIA all other major indices have broken above their respective symmetrical triangles.
