Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:00 AM just below a resistance line, which was a broken support
- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2783.50 and below 2762.50 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- PPI (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30
- Core PPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Retail Sales (-0.1% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were down
- European markets are mostly higher – Italy is down
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
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|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Copper
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
- Cocoa
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- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Coffee
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.837% down from March 13 close of 2.848%;
- 30-years is at 3.079%, down from 3.101%
- 2-years yield is at 2.266%, up from 2.258%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.571, down from 0.590
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2751.54, 2740.45 and 2728.05
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2783.27, 2796.98 and 2808.92
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2783.50, the high at 6:00 AM and break below 2776.25, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2769.25 and the index closed at 2765.31 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2772.75 for the day; the fair value is -3.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50; Dow by +66.00; and NASDAQ by +20.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large red body candle that engulfed Monday’s red candle; just above the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside; it may act as a support
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a double top pattern; achieved the 100% extension target to the downside; bounced up to the broken lower limit of the double top pattern
- Rising since making a low of 2681.25 at 6:00 PM on March 6; pulling back since 2:00 AM on March 12 from 2805.00, which is just above a resistance level; above an uptrend line; sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI-9 declining since 2:00 AM on March 12 formed a divergence at 8:00 AM on March 13;bouncing off from a low of 26t 10:00 PM to just above 50; below a downtrend line
- At 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways to down since 4:00 PM on March 9
- Broke above an ascending triangle and achieved 100% extension target near 2789.00;
- RSI bouncing off from 23.82 at 3:00 PM on March 13; at or near 65;
- Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving slightly up from down
- The band is again narrowing
- RSI is trending down from 77.74 at 4:00 Am; now just above 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is trending down since 5:00 AM; near 20
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday March 13. Dow Jones Transportation Average was up. Major indices also made reversal candlestick patterns. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a three day evening star pattern at the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle, which acted as a resistance. NYSE Composite also made a similar candlestick formation. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 200 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made bearish engulfing patterns and DJT made a shooting star candle. The volume was higher than that on Monday.
Up |
Down |
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
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- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Telecom
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