S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:00 AM just below a resistance line, which was a broken support
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2783.50 and below 2762.50 for change of fortunes
Key economic data:
PPI (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30
Core PPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Retail Sales (-0.1% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were down
European markets are mostly higher – Italy is down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Cotton
Cocoa
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Coffee
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.837% down from March 13 close of 2.848%;
30-years is at 3.079%, down from 3.101%
2-years yield is at 2.266%, up from 2.258%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.571, down from 0.590
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2751.54, 2740.45 and 2728.05
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2783.27, 2796.98 and 2808.92
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2783.50, the high at 6:00 AM and break below 2776.25, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2769.25 and the index closed at 2765.31 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2772.75 for the day; the fair value is -3.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50; Dow by +66.00; and NASDAQ by +20.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Down-Side
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A large red body candle that engulfed Monday’s red candle; just above the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside; it may act as a support
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke below a double top pattern; achieved the 100% extension target to the downside; bounced up to the broken lower limit of the double top pattern
Rising since making a low of 2681.25 at 6:00 PM on March 6; pulling back since 2:00 AM on March 12 from 2805.00, which is just above a resistance level; above an uptrend line; sequence of higher highs and higher lows
RSI-9 declining since 2:00 AM on March 12 formed a divergence at 8:00 AM on March 13;bouncing off from a low of 26t 10:00 PM to just above 50; below a downtrend line
At 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving sideways to down since 4:00 PM on March 9
Broke above an ascending triangle and achieved 100% extension target near 2789.00;
RSI bouncing off from 23.82 at 3:00 PM on March 13; at or near 65;
Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving slightly up from down
The band is again narrowing
RSI is trending down from 77.74 at 4:00 Am; now just above 50
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is trending down since 5:00 AM; near 20
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday March 13. Dow Jones Transportation Average was up. Major indices also made reversal candlestick patterns. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a three day evening star pattern at the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle, which acted as a resistance. NYSE Composite also made a similar candlestick formation. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 200 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made bearish engulfing patterns and DJT made a shooting star candle. The volume was higher than that on Monday.
