Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 10:30 PM on Wednesday
- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2762.25 and below 2752.25 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Unemployment Claims (6K vs. 227K est.) at 8:30
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (22.5 vs. 14.9 est.) at 8:30 AM
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.3 vs. 23.1 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Sydney and Mumbai were down; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul were up
- European markets are mostly higher – Spain and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.812% down from March 14 close of 2.817%;
- 30-years is at 3.050%, down from 3.058%
- 2-years yield is at 2.266%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.546, down from 0.551
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2744.38, 2740.45 and 2728.05
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2762.89, 2777.11 and 2783.27
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2762.25.50, the high at 3:30 AM and break below 2752.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2754.25 and the index closed at 2749.48 – a spread of about +5.75 points; futures closed at 2754.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00; Dow by +59.00; and NASDAQ by +6.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large red body candle that engulfed Monday’s red candle; just above the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside; it may act as a support
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a double top pattern; achieved the 100% extension target to the downside; turned down from the broken lower limit following a bounce;
- Declining since 2:00 AM on March 12;
- RSI-9 declining since 2:00 AM on March 12; below a downtrend line
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving down since 9:30 AM on March 13; below a downtrend line
- RSI between 40 and 55 since 10:00 PM on March 14
- At 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on March 14
- The band is narrow since NYSE close
- RSI is between 40 and 65 since mid-day on March 14
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is rising since 6:45 AM
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed down on Wednesday March 14. Most completed a three-day evening star candlestick formation. The volumes was mixed.
Up |
Down |
- Energy
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Real Estate
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