S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 10:30 PM on Wednesday
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2762.25 and below 2752.25 for change of fortunes
Key economic data:
Unemployment Claims (6K vs. 227K est.) at 8:30
Empire State Manufacturing Index (22.5 vs. 14.9 est.) at 8:30 AM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.3 vs. 23.1 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Sydney and Mumbai were down; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul were up
European markets are mostly higher – Spain and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.812% down from March 14 close of 2.817%;
30-years is at 3.050%, down from 3.058%
2-years yield is at 2.266%, unchanged
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.546, down from 0.551
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2744.38, 2740.45 and 2728.05
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2762.89, 2777.11 and 2783.27
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2762.25.50, the high at 3:30 AM and break below 2752.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2754.25 and the index closed at 2749.48 – a spread of about +5.75 points; futures closed at 2754.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00; Dow by +59.00; and NASDAQ by +6.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A large red body candle that engulfed Monday’s red candle; just above the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside; it may act as a support
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke below a double top pattern; achieved the 100% extension target to the downside; turned down from the broken lower limit following a bounce;
Declining since 2:00 AM on March 12;
RSI-9 declining since 2:00 AM on March 12; below a downtrend line
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving down since 9:30 AM on March 13; below a downtrend line
RSI between 40 and 55 since 10:00 PM on March 14
At 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on March 14
The band is narrow since NYSE close
RSI is between 40 and 65 since mid-day on March 14
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is rising since 6:45 AM
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed down on Wednesday March 14. Most completed a three-day evening star candlestick formation. The volumes was mixed.
