Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Thursday- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2760.75 and below 2750.25 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Building Permits (1.30M vs. 1.32M est.) at 8:30
- Housing Starts (1.24M vs. 1.29M est.) at 8:30 AM
- Industrial Production (1.1% vs. 0.3% est.) at 9:15 AM
- Capacity Utilization (78.1% vs. 77.7% est.) at 9:15 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly down – Sydney and Seoul were up
- European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Palladium
- Cocoa
|
- NatGas
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.832% up from March 15 close of 2.826%;
- 30-years is at 3.062%, up from 3.061%
- 2-years yield is at 2.287%, down from 2.291%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.545, up from 0.535
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2741.47, 2722.65 and 2701.74
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2763.03, 2777.11 and 2783.27
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2759.50, the high at 7:30 PM on March 15 and break below 2753.50, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2751.25 and the index closed at 2747.33 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2755.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +3.00; and NASDAQ by +4.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small red body candle, a harami candle near the lows
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a downtrend line on March 14 at 10: AM; moving sideways since then
- RSI-9 moving up since 10:00 AM on March 14
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 11:30 AM on March 14
- RSI between 40 and 65 since 10:00 PM on March 14
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is at/below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on March 14
- The band is mostly narrow since NYSE Close on March 14
- RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since mid-day on March 14
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is rising since 7:45 AM
- Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Thursday March 15. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. The volume was lower than that on Wednesday.
| Up |
Down |
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate (Unch.)
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Thursday March 15. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. The volume was lower than that on Wednesday.
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