Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 11:30 AM on Friday; new leg down since 4:00 AM; bouncing up since 4:30 AM reaching a resistance- Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2745.25
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sydney were up; Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul were down
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Copper
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.867% up from March 16 close of 2.848%;
- 30-years is at 3.100%, up from 3.080%
- 2-years yield is at 2.312%, down from 2.295%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.555, up from 0.553
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2749.47, 2741.47 and 2722.65
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2757.80, 2763.03 and 2777.11
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2745.5, the high at 8:00 AM and break below 2738.00, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2753.75 and the index closed at 2752.01 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2756.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -13.25; Dow by -129.00; and NASDAQ by -77.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side-Down
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 16 was a small red body, with small no upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2765.13, R1=2788.78, R2=2825.56; S1=2728.35, S2=2704.70; No pivot levels were breached;
- A down week following an up week; second in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small red doji harami candle; staying just above the upper limit line of a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside on March 9 with a gap
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a downtrend line on March 14 at 10: AM; drooping down after moving sideways for many bars
- RSI-9 moving down, from just above 50, since 8:00 AM on March 16
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a horizontal trading channel at 4:00 AM ; 100% extension target is near 2726.00; a little bounce, from a low of 2739.25 at 4:30 AM, is finding resistance at the broken lower limit of the channel
- RSI hovering around 40 with a down bias
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:15 PM on March 16
- The band expanded during the European session and is trimming the width since 9:00 AM
- RSI hovered around 40 since 3:45 PM on March 16 and then declined below 20 at 4:00 PM; now back at 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down from 90 at 8:00 AM
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday March 16. in increased volume from previous day. However, the day’s range was small and most made a doji like pattern. Russell 2000 made a bullish engulfing pattern and Dow Jones Transportation Average made morning star pattern.
For the week, major indices were down. Most European and Asian indices closed higher for the week. Only two S&P 500 sectors, Utilities and Real Estate, were up for the week.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Staples
- Utility
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday March 16. in increased volume from previous day. However, the day’s range was small and most made a doji like pattern. Russell 2000 made a bullish engulfing pattern and Dow Jones Transportation Average made morning star pattern.
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