Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 2:30 PM on Monday; at a downtrend line, a possible resistance- Odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break above 2729.00 and below 2716.25 for change of fortunes
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Tokyo and Sydney were down
- European markets are up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.883% up from March 19 close of 2.845%;
- 30-years is at 3.117%, up from 3.079%
- 2-years yield is at 2.345%, down from 2.316%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.538, up from 0.529
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2694.59,2675.75 and 2664.83
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2725.54, 2734.32 and 2741.38
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2729.00, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2716.25, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2716.25 and the index closed at 2712.92 – a spread of about +3.25 points; futures closed at 2722.75 for the day; the fair value is -6.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.25; Dow by +18.00; and NASDAQ by +1.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 16 was a small red body, with small no upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2765.13, R1=2788.78, R2=2825.56; S1=2728.35, S2=2704.70; No pivot levels were breached;
- A down week following an up week; second in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large red candle that gapped down at the open; no upper shadow and long lower shadow; breaking below a symmetrical triangle after breaking, and staying, above it for few days; filled the upside gap of March 9
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Below 20-day EMA; and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a downtrend line on March 14 at 10: AM; achieved all targets
- Below a downtrend lien from the high of March 13; sequence of lower highs and lower lows since; bouncing off the low of 2697.25
- RSI-9 moving up since 12:00 PM on March 19 from the low of 12.31; nearing 50
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a horizontal trading channel at 4:00 AM ; achieved most extension targets
- RSI bouncing from a low of 15.4 at 1:30 PM on March 19; since 3:30 PM
- At 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:00 PM on March 19
- The band narrowed since 10:00 PM
- RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 3:30 PM on March 19
- 6 and then declined below 20 at 4:00 PM; now back at 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down from 97 at 7:00 AM
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday March 19. in mixed volume from previous day. Most indices opened at the day’s high and then mostly moved lower and retracing a bit before the close thus forming a longer lower shadow. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite gapped down at the open and did not close the gap. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a three-day evening star pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average formed a harami candlestick line and Russell 2000 made a bearish engulfing pattern.
| Up |
Down |
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday March 19. in mixed volume from previous day. Most indices opened at the day’s high and then mostly moved lower and retracing a bit before the close thus forming a longer lower shadow. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite gapped down at the open and did not close the gap. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a three-day evening star pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average formed a harami candlestick line and Russell 2000 made a bearish engulfing pattern.
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