Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 6:30 PM on April 8- Odds are for a sideways move from current levels with an up bias – watch for break above 2622.50 and below 2615.00 for change of fortunes
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were up
- European markets are mostly up – U.K. and STOXX 600 are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
|
- Bonds10-yrs yield is at 2.801% up from April 6 close of 2.775%;
- 30-years is at 3.041%, up from 3.018%
- 2-years yield is at 2.283%, down from 2.291%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.518, up from 0.484
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2586.27, 2573.61 and 2553.80
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2639.41, 2656.88 and 2672.08
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2622.50, the high at 5:30 AM and break below 2615.25, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2602.75 and the index closed at 2604.47 – a spread of about -1.75 points; futures closed at 2605.75 for the day; the fair value is -3.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +11.75; Dow by +137.00; and NASDAQ by +37.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 6 was a small red spinning top with long upper and lower shadow;
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=228.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week following an up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large red candle that gapped down at the open, leaving the green spinning top of Thursday an island candle
- At the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle; break, and close, below 2586.27, will complete the pattern and create potential target near 2250.00
- Bouncing off 200-day SMA
- Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; at 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- In the middle of a horizontal channel that has been breached to the upside and downside at least once
- Below a downtrend line from the high of March 13, which was once breached to the upside; sequence of lower highs and lower lows since March 13 was broken on April once; trending down since 12:00 PM April 5
- RSI-9 moving down since 10:00 AM April 5; the downtrend line broken
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Emerging down-sloping flag; break above 2639.50 will be bullish; break below 2600.00 will be bearish
- Trending down since 3:00 PM on April 5 in steps
- RSI above 40 since 6:00 PM on April 8 and mostly moving around 50
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 11:15 PM on April 8
- The band narrowed since 11:00 PM
- RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 4:00 PM on April 6
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K moving around 20
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday April 6 in higher volume than on Thursday. Most indices gapped down at the open, which made Thursday and island candle day for them.
For the week, major U.S. indices were lower in higher volume. Most major indices are forming bearish ABCD pattern and break below the low of the week of April 2 will complete the pattern and initiate downward targets, which would be 5% and 13% below current levels. All S&P 500 sectors closed down for the week..
| Up |
Down |
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday April 6 in higher volume than on Thursday. Most indices gapped down at the open, which made Thursday and island candle day for them.
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