Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 10:30 PM on April 9
- Odds are for a sideways move from current level with up bias – watch for break above 2656.25 and below 2640.50 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due
- PPI (0.3% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were up
- European markets are up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
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- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Palladium
|
- NatGas
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
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- Bonds10-yrs yield is at 2.788% up from April 9 close of 2.786%;
- 30-years is at 3.011%, down from 3.018%
- 2-years yield is at 2.303%, up from 2.283%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.485, down from 0.503
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2586.27, 2573.61 and 2553.80
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2653.55, 2672.08 and 2695.68
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2656.25, the high at 2:30 AM and break below 2640.50, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2613.75 and the index closed at 2613.16 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2619.00 for the day; the fair value is -5.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +28.75; Dow by +304.00; and NASDAQ by +87.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 6 was a small red spinning top with long upper and lower shadow;
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=228.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week following an up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small red candle with large upper shadow, a shooting star but without the preceding rally
- At the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle; break, and close, below 2586.27, will complete the pattern and create potential target near 2250.00
- Bouncing off 200-day SMA
- Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; at 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- In the middle of a horizontal channel that has been breached to the upside and downside at least once
- Rising above a downtrend line, for the second time, from the high of March 13; sequence of lower highs and lower lows since March 13 was broken on April once; trending down since 12:00 PM April 5
- RSI-9 moving between 40 and 65 since 6:00 PM on April 8;
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- An emerging ascending triangle (or inverted head-&-should pattern); break 2658.00 will be bullish; break below 2625.00 will be bearish
- Moving, mostly, sideways since 2:30 PM on April 4
- RSI above 40 since 6:00 PM on April 8
- At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 2:30 AM
- The band narrowed since 2:30 AM
- RSI is mostly around 50 since 3:35 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K moving down from a high of .8 at 5:30 AM
- Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday April 9 in lower volume than on Friday. Dow Jones Transportation Average fell. The major indices gapped up at the open and rose a lot but then gave up most of the gains in the last half hour of trading and closed near the lows for the day. Despite gains the overall price-action was more bearish than bullish. It is critical for the price to rise above intra-day high for the market positivity to continue.
Up |
Down |
- Energy
- Materials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Telecom
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- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Real Estate
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