Morning Notes – Tuesday April 10, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P 500 eMini Futures (2-Hour) 10-Apr-18 6:30 AM S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 10:30 PM on April 9
  • Odds are for a sideways move from current level with up bias – watch for break above 2656.25 and below 2640.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due
    • PPI (0.3% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core PPI (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were up
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • NatGas
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds10-yrs yield is at 2.788% up from April 9 close of 2.786%;
    • 30-years is at 3.011%, down from 3.018%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.303%, up from 2.283%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.485, down from 0.503

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2586.27, 2573.61 and 2553.80
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2653.55, 2672.08 and 2695.68
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2656.25, the high at 2:30 AM and break below 2640.50, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2613.75 and the index closed at 2613.16 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2619.00 for the day; the fair value is -5.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +28.75; Dow by +304.00; and NASDAQ by +87.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Down-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 6 was a small red spinning top with long upper and lower shadow;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=228.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week following an up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small red candle with large upper shadow, a shooting star but without the preceding rally
  • At the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle; break, and close, below 2586.27, will complete the pattern and create potential target near 2250.00
  • Bouncing off 200-day SMA
  • Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; at 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • In the middle of a horizontal channel that has been breached to the upside and downside at least once
  • Rising above a downtrend line, for the second time, from the high of March 13; sequence of lower highs and lower lows since March 13 was broken on April once; trending down since 12:00 PM April 5
  • RSI-9 moving between 40 and 65 since 6:00 PM on April 8;
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • An emerging ascending triangle (or inverted head-&-should pattern); break 2658.00 will be bullish; break below 2625.00 will be bearish
  • Moving, mostly, sideways since 2:30 PM on April 4
  • RSI above 40 since 6:00 PM on April 8
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 2:30 AM
  • The band narrowed since 2:30 AM
  • RSI is mostly around 50 since 3:35 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K moving down from a high of .8 at 5:30 AM
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday April 9 in lower volume than on Friday. Dow Jones Transportation Average fell. The major indices gapped up at the open and rose a lot but then gave up most of the gains in the last half hour of trading and closed near the lows for the day. Despite gains the overall price-action was more bearish than bullish. It is critical for the price to rise above intra-day high for the market positivity to continue.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Materials
  3. Finance
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Telecom
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Industrials
  4. Real Estate