S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 6:30 AM after a jump from another sideways move from 6:30 PM to 5:40 AM
At a resistance of the upper bound of a horizontal channel
Odds are for a sideways move from current level, with an up bias, and volatility – watch for break above 2656.50 and below 2639.75 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due
Unemployment Claims (233K vs. 231K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly down – Mumbai was up
European markets are mostly up – U.K. and Italy are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/INR
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.794% up from April 11 close of 2.790%;
30-years is at 3.013%, up from 3.006%
2-years yield is at 2.328%, up from 2.312%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.466, down from 0.478
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2639.25, 2635.78 and 2610.79
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2665.45, 2672.08 and 2695.68
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2656.25, the high at 6:30 AM and break below 2639.75, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2642.50 and the index closed at 2642.19 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2641.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.50; Dow by +137.00; and NASDAQ by +41.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on April 6 was a small red spinning top with long upper and lower shadow;
Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=228.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
A down week following an up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A red doji candle with small lower and larger upper shadow; the day’s range was within the range of Tuesday
At the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle; break, and close, below 2586.27, will complete the pattern and create potential target near 2250.00
Bouncing off 200-day SMA
At/below 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
In the middle of a horizontal channel that has been breached to the upside and downside at least once; moving sideways since 10:00 PM on April 9
Broken above, for the second time, a downtrend line from the high of March 13; sequence of lower highs and lower lows since March 13 was broken in April once; trending down since 12:00 PM April 5
RSI-9 moving down since 10:00 AM on April 10 and now just above 40
At/above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
An emerging ascending triangle broken to the downside in a gradual sideway move and is morphing into a horizontal channel
Moving, mostly, sideways since 2:30 PM on April 4
RSI moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 2:30 AM on April 10
The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 6:00 AM
RSI is between 40 and 65 since 9:00 AM on April 11; briefly broke above 65 at 6:15 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K reached 3.84 and 4:45 AM and then rose to 95.45 by 6:45 AM
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday April 11 in lower volume than on Tuesday. Russell 2000 advanced. Most major indices gapped down at the open and then closed in the bottom half of day’s range.
