Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 3:00 AM on April 16; nearing 2700.00 level- Odds are for an up move, but perhaps sideways move around the 2700 – watch for break above 2702.00 and below 2689.00 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due
- Building Permits (1.35M vs. 1.33M est.) at 8:30 AM
- Housing Starts (1.32M vs. 1.27M est.) at 8:30 AM
- Capacity Utilization (78.0% vs. 77.9% est.) at 9:15 AM
- Industrial Production (0.5% vs. 0.3% est.) at 9:15 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were down; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were up
- European markets are up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Silver
- Platinum
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Copper
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.830%, down from April 16 close of 2.832%;
- 30-years is at 3.023%, down from 3.030%
- 2-years yield is at 2.390%, up from 2.378%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.440, down from 0.454
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2676.38, 2665.16 and 2656.07
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2709.79, 2739.14 and 2750.64
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2697.25, the low at 2:00 PM on March 19 and break below 2689.00, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2678.00 and the index closed at 2677.84 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2681.75 for the day; the fair value is -3.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +15.50; Dow by +207.00; and NASDAQ by +43.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A green candle with almost small lower shadow and upper shadows;
- In the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
- Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA; below 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00
- Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
- RSI-9 moving up, second leg, since 2:00 PM on April 13; above 65
- Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Break above an ascending triangle continues; 100% extension target is near 2720.00
- Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI is mostly moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11; moving around 65 since 11:00 PM on April 16
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 2:30 AM on April 16
- The band is small since 7:45 PM on April 16
- RSI is mostly above 40 since 4:00 PM on April mostly above 50 since 3:45 AM on April 16; near 65
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving around 70
- Bias: Up
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday April 16 in mostly lower volume. Only Dow Jones Transportation Average traded with higher volume. Most indices are at 50-day EMA. Russell 2000 and DJT have just broken above it. Dow Jones Industrial Average is at the upper limit of a descending triangle. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are near the middle of a symmetrical triangle. NYSE Composite has broken above a symmetrical triangle.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
|
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday April 16 in mostly lower volume. Only Dow Jones Transportation Average traded with higher volume. Most indices are at 50-day EMA. Russell 2000 and DJT have just broken above it. Dow Jones Industrial Average is at the upper limit of a descending triangle. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are near the middle of a symmetrical triangle. NYSE Composite has broken above a symmetrical triangle.
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